Jalen Brunson added to his legacy for the New York Knicks with a fantastic fourth quarter in the opening game of the NBA Finals, helping steal a road win from the San Antonio Spurs.
While Big Apple basketball fans start measuring for a Brunson-sized statue outside of Madison Square Garden, I’m pumping the breaks on the Jalen Brunson odds for Game 2.
Here are my best Knicks vs. Spurs predictions and NBA picks for New York's star point guard on June 5.
Jalen Brunson prop pick for Game 2
Jalen Brunson best bet: Jalen Brunson Under 25.5 points (-112 at bet365)
Taking the Under on star player props in big games is about as excruciating as waiting for your mechanic to diagnose that “creaky creaky” sound your car started making. You’re pretty sure it’s going to cost you money, but here I am... with good reason (and the van in the shop).
Brunson’s heroics in Game 1 make most forget that the San Antonio Spurs did a great job on the New York Knicks’ top scorer — at least for 36 minutes. Before scoring 13 of his 30 points on 5-for-9 shooting in the fourth quarter, Brunson was just 7-for-22 from the field and entered the final frame with 17 points.
San Antonio committed five of its 13 turnovers in the final frame, and Brunson manufactured four points of those miscues (finishing with eight total POTO). He also hit a dagger 3-pointer (going just 2-for-9 from distance) with under two minutes left, thanks to an offensive board from Mikal Bridges (Brunson finished with five second-chance points).
Cleaning up turnovers and the defensive glass will be a big focus for San Antonio tonight, as is keeping Brunson out of the paint (16 of his 30 points came inside the key). Expect Victor Wembanyama to stay closer to the rim tonight.
The Spurs will also be more selective with who guards Brunson, as he tormented most of their options. Stephon Castle spent the bulk of possessions checking him — with mixed results — while Dylan Harper and De’Aaron Fox had success in slowing him down.
Brunson’s knee isn’t on the injury report, but those soft tissue ailments hurt more in the days after. I expect San Antonio to test his mobility on both ends of the floor, with tighter on-ball pressure and screen action from San Antonio’s offense targeting the Knicks star.
Game 2 projections all sit short of 26 points for Brunson, with my number coming out just north of 24 points. That should have the Under 25.5 priced at -140 rather than -112.
There’s no quit in the Knicks, but if the Spurs do break away late and Brunson’s knee is wonky, Mike Brown could protect his superstar and be happy with a split in San Antonio.
Jalen Brunson same-game parlay
Under on Brunson points but Over on his 3-pointers. WTF? Before you screenshot and blast me on X, hear me out. HEAR ME OUT, DAMN IT!
San Antonio was doing a solid job pushing Brunson to the perimeter through three quarters, leaving him to go 1-for-8 from distance before the final frame. I expect those long-range looks to be there again in Game 2, especially considering the game script.
Everything else is going to be tougher to come by. All the Game 2 models have Brunson coming up short of 26 points but list his 3-point makes right on the 2.5 O/U total. His nine 3PAs in Game 1 were Brunson's third-most shots from deep in the playoffs.
We’ve seen Brunson switch from go-to-scorer to playmaker when foes bring extra pressure. In the five games in which he failed to score at least 26 points, he’s dished out an average of 7.2 dimes (and played limited minutes in two of those due to blowouts). His projections for tonight bounce between 6.5 and 7+ assists.
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