New York Knicks star guard Jalen Brunson has had one hell of a run in the playoffs.
He’s scoring almost 27 points a night and has propelled New York to the NBA Finals, including back-to-back series sweeps to set up this showdown with the San Antonio Spurs.
Despite that success, Brunson isn’t buying into his own brand.
“We can’t be satisfied just because we’re here,” he told reporters ahead of tonight’s Game 1.
Big Apple basketball bettors are banking on Brunson big time. I dig into his NBA player props for my best Knicks vs. Spurs predictions and NBA picks for June 3.
Jalen Brunson prop pick for Game 1
Jalen Brunson best bet: Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 rebounds
Jalen Brunson’s contributions don’t stop at scoring (FYI: one of my favorite Game 1 bets is Over 2.5 3-pointers).
The New York Knicks' burly point guard can also clean the glass and unlike the opening three rounds, Brunson faces a smaller San Antonio Spurs squad.
Beyond 7-foot skyscraper Victor Wembanyama and a few backup bigs, the Spurs’ main rotation doesn’t go beyond 6-foot-7, and that gives smaller guards a fighting chance on the boards (take Wemby out and San Antonio drops to an average height of 6-foot-6.1 – fourth shortest).
Brunson was an active rebounder in three meetings with San Antonio this season, snatching four rebounds in each of those outings while averaging more than seven rebounding chances per game.
He wrangled three or more rebounds in three of the four games against a shorter Cleveland backcourt, upping his chances to 8.0 per contest in the Eastern Conference finals. Projections for Game 1 of the NBA Finals all sit north of three boards with a ceiling at 4.1 rebounds.
My conservative number comes out to 3.4 rebounds, which lands the fair price right on this current ask of Over 2.5 -155.
However, if you lean toward his past production versus San Antonio and the high side of the game models (as well as an expected uptick in pace compared to the past two opponents), Brunson is pegged for 3.75 rebounds. That should have the Over 2.5 listed closer to -200.
Jalen Brunson same-game parlay
I like the Knicks to cover in Game 1, despite the risk of a “rust over rest” factor following an extended layoff. Ahead of tonight, Brunson specifically mentioned the team’s flat start in Game 1 of the Eastern finals following a big break, and I don’t see New York falling into that trap again.
The Knicks have various defensive options to throw at Wembanyama and pose a much bigger threat from outside than OKC, hence the Over on Brunson’s triples. Between battling a smaller Spurs lineup on the boards and burying shots from downtown, Brunson puts in a strong start to the NBA Finals.
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