The wait is over. The 2026 NBA Finals tip off tonight as the San Antonio Spurs host the New York Knicks in Game 1.
With tip-off set for 8:30 p.m. ET at Frost Bank Center and the Spurs listed as 5.5-point favorites, our Covers experts break down their favorite NBA picks and predictions for Wednesday, June 3.
Knicks vs Spurs Expert Picks Tonight
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Jason Logan:  Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 rebounds |
-155 |
| Jason Logan: Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 threes |
+135 |
 Douglas Farmer:  Victor Wembanyama Over 11.5 rebounds |
-125 |
| Douglas Farmer: De'Aaron Fox Over 1.5 steals |
+160 |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
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Jason Logan's expert pick: Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 rebounds
Price: -155 at bet365
Jalen Brunson’s contributions don’t stop at scoring.
The New York Knicks' burly point guard can also clean the glass and unlike the opening three rounds, Brunson faces a smaller San Antonio Spurs squad.
Beyond 7-foot skyscraper Victor Wembanyama and a few backup bigs, the Spurs’ main rotation doesn’t go beyond 6-foot-7, and that gives smaller guards a fighting chance on the boards (take Wemby out and San Antonio drops to an average height of 6-foot-6.1 – fourth shortest).
Brunson was an active rebounder in three meetings with San Antonio this season, snatching four rebounds in each of those outings while averaging more than seven rebounding chances per game.
Jason Logan's expert pick: Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 threes
Price: +135 at bet365
With Victor Wembanyama lurking in the key, the Knicks need to stretch a Spurs defense that doesn’t have much length beyond Wemby. That means smaller defenders and cleaner looks for Brunson.
Projections lean toward a trio of triples from Brunson, with an underdog game script giving Over 2.5 threes a shot in the arm at plus-money.
Douglas Farmer's expert pick: Victor Wembanyama Over 11.5 rebounds
Price: -125 at bet365
Amid relative offensive struggles in that second-round series, Victor Wembanyama still cleared this modest rebounding prop in four of the five games he played genuine minutes in. (Let’s just ignore his stats from Game 4, when Wembanyama was ejected after playing 12 minutes for an egregious elbow to Naz Reid’s throat.)
The only game in which Wembanyama fell short of this prop was the clinching Game 6, when the San Antonio Spurs led by 13 at halftime and 26 by the end of the third quarter. Even Wemby’s 27 minutes did not require full effort. Otherwise, Wembanyama ruled the glass, averaging 15.5 rebounds per game.
Douglas Farmer's expert pick: De'Aaron Fox Over 1.5 steals
Price: +160 at bet365
This is as much a bet on how often Jalen Brunson will handle the ball as it is on De’Aaron Fox’s quick hands. Fox should be Brunson’s primary defender more often than not — allowing Stephon Castle to match up with a bigger wing — and when facing such a ball-dominant point guard, the steal opportunities will be bountiful.
Fox cleared this prop twice in the final three games of the Western Conference Finals, again facing a ball-dominant guard in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Betting on Fox’s steals prop makes most sense early in the series — as is the case with any Spurs — as it may take a game or two for New York to adjust to this unique, Wembanyama-supported defense. San Antonio’s perimeter defenders can be aggressive, knowing the quality of rim protection awaiting behind them.
More Knicks vs Spurs Game 1 picks
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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