Entering the last two NBA Finals, there was an accepted feeling of fait accompli. Neither the Mavericks nor the Pacers really felt like they had a chance, though Indiana clearly proved that wrong last year.
These Finals feel different. While the New York Knicks are distinct underdogs, their 11-game run of absolute dominance should stoke some fear in the San Antonio Spurs.
These Knicks vs. Spurs props and NBA picks start by looking at New York’s offense during that run to find value in Game 1 on Wednesday, June 3.
Best Knicks vs Spurs props for Game 1
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Karl-Anthony Towns |
Over 1.5 made threes | +120 |
 De'Aaron Fox |
Over 1.5 steals | +160 |
| Jalen Brunson |
Under 6.5 assists | +115 |
Game 1 Prop #1: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 3-pointers
For most players, it's worth noting that the San Antonio Spurs have held postseason opponents to 32.9% from deep. But Karl-Anthony Towns can shoot over any defensive look. Yes, even over Victor Wembanyama to start this series.
Only to start this series because Wembanyama’s instinct will be to keep one foot in the paint and then close out on Towns. That will not work. As Towns hits 3-pointers in this series, that should draw the Frenchman out toward the perimeter, thus reaping another benefit for the New York Knicks’ offense.
Towns has hit 48.9% of his 3-pointers this postseason. The only issue is whether he will attempt enough triples to be a threat. But in this series more than ever, Towns’s success on the perimeter could be the make-or-break piece for New York.
Game 1 Prop #2: De'Aaron Fox Over 1.5 steals
This is as much a bet on how often Jalen Brunson will handle the ball as it is on De’Aaron Fox’s quick hands. Fox should be Brunson’s primary defender more often than not — allowing Stephon Castle to match up with a bigger wing — and when facing such a ball-dominant point guard, the steal opportunities will be bountiful.
Fox cleared this prop twice in the final three games of the Western Conference Finals, again facing a ball-dominant guard in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Betting on Fox’s steals prop makes most sense early in the series — as is the case with any Spurs — as it may take a game or two for New York to adjust to this unique, Wembanyama-supported defense. San Antonio’s perimeter defenders can be aggressive, knowing the quality of rim protection awaiting behind them.
Game 1 Prop #3: Jalen Brunson Under 6.5 assists
If not wanting to bet an Under, then consider Towns’s Over 4.5 assists prop, priced at +122 at bet365. But the bet with more avenues to cashing is indeed this Under.
First of all, the Knicks have put the ball into Towns’s hands as an offensive fulcrum more often. By no means is it a majority of New York’s offense, but it has opened up space in the halfcourt. Since that move, Towns has averaged 6.5 assists while Brunson has averaged 6.7.
Secondly, Brunson’s assists have come in chunks this postseason. Since that shift to moving the ball through Towns, Brunson has fallen short of this modest prop in seven of 11 games. Even in the two genuinely competitive games in this stretch of dominance, Brunson notched only six assists in each.
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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