Tonight's six-game NBA slate tips off with the Milwaukee Bucks visiting the New York Knicks at 7:30 p.m. ET and ends with the Oklahoma City Thunder against the Portland Trail Blazers at 11 p.m. ET.
Our NBA moneyline picks cover all six matchups in tipoff order, with probabilities based on Polymarket market prices.
The New York Knicks are the biggest favorites at 86%, while the Sacramento Kings are the steepest underdogs we're backing at 32%.
Find more analysis and predictions on our NBA picks page on Tuesday, Nov. 10.
NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 10
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Bucks Knicks |
86% |
 Celtics 76ers |
49% |
 Heat Jazz |
74% |
 Clippers Suns |
38% |
 Magic Kings |
32% |
 Thunder Trail Blazers |
45% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Expert NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 10
Bucks vs. Knicks: Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns' shooting ability creates a difficult matchup for the Milwaukee Bucks, forcing Myles Turner out of his preferred drop coverage and limiting his ability to protect the rim as a shot blocker.
With Turner pulled away from the basket, the Bucks' inexperienced wing defenders will have less help as they try to contain Jalen Brunson on the open floor.
The 86% price is steep, but I still see a slight edge on the New York Knicks at that probability.
Celtics vs. 76ers: 76ers
I'll gladly back the Philadelphia 76ers at 49%, as I make them a 53% favorite in this matchup.
I'm surprised to see the Boston Celtics priced as a favorite, especially when they're on the front end of a back-to-back and adding Mike Conley to the starting lineup.
With the potential for reduced minutes among Boston's starters and some lineup friction issues, I'll happily take the 76ers as underdogs at this price.
Heat vs. Jazz: Heat
The injury report is the key to trading this matchup, as Lauri Markkanen is questionable and Keyonte George is doubtful. Both absences would significantly impact the handicap.
At 74% probability, the Miami Heat only offer an edge if at least one of Markkanen or George is sidelined. With George already listed as doubtful, there's a strong possibility that condition is met.
If both players are ruled out, the edge grows considerably, making Miami at 74% a number worth having in your pocket.
Clippers vs. Suns: Clippers
I price the Los Angeles Clippers closer to a 43% underdog, making the 38% market price an attractive buy.
This projection assumes Brandon Ingram remains out, but he's progressing toward a return. If he suits up, that would only strengthen my projected win probability and increase our edge at this price.
The Phoenix Suns are also playing the second night of a back-to-back, and I like the defensive matchup for Derrick Jones Jr. and Kris Dunn against Devin Booker and Jalen Green. That backcourt defensive advantage has me siding with the Clippers at 38%.
Magic vs. Kings: Kings
Even with Desmond Bane projected to return to the Orlando Magic lineup, I still see an edge on the Sacramento Kings at 32%.
Another key factor in this matchup is Keegan Murray's return to Sacramento's lineup.
With Paolo Banchero sidelined, Orlando's offense runs primarily through Franz Wagner, making Murray's presence particularly valuable.
He's an ideal defensive matchup for Wagner and a significant addition for the Kings in this spot.
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: Trail Blazers
Chet Holmgren's absence is particularly significant, as it forces the Oklahoma City Thunder to rely on Isaiah Hartenstein as their primary center.
Hartenstein's lack of a perimeter shot allows defenders to sag off him, clog the paint, and provide extra rim protection. That becomes an even bigger problem against Donovan Clingan, who can exploit the matchup by camping out near the basket and altering shots at the rim.
I strongly believe the Portland Trail Blazers should be trading closer to 51% than the current 45% market price against Oklahoma City.
Today's NBA moneyline combo
76ers
Clippers
Trail Blazers
There are plenty of underdogs to choose from, so let's combine three for a solid payout without stretching to four or five legs.
If you're wondering why the Kings didn't make the cut, I do like their matchup and the price, but they're still the Kings at the end of the day.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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