Celtics vs Heat Game 5 Player Props: Horford Hoards Points

Boston put the clamps on Miami in a decisive Game 4 victory, sitting the Heat in the hot seat as they return home. See which player prop picks yield the best value for Game 5, including Al Horford to make more of an impact on the scoring tally.

Douglas Farmer - Betting Analyst at Covers
Douglas Farmer • Betting Analyst
May 25, 2022 • 17:23 ET • 4 min read
Al Horford Boston Celtics NBA playoffs
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

As hard as this may be to believe, the Boston Celtics did not play well in their blowout victory in Game 4. That 20-point win felt more lopsided than the score indicated, yet the Celtics still shot only 23.5% from deep and worse than 40% overall. The Miami Heat made nearly twice as many threes.

Nonetheless, Boston cruised thanks to Jayson Tatum’s repeated trips to the free-throw line. If that isn’t replicable in Game 5, some other NBA prop picks will need to break Boston’s way to win on the road. Picks like …

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis. Each odds widget below represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated US sportsbooks.

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Celtics vs Heat Game 4 props

How could the Celtics win a game by 20 in which they shot so poorly? Their defense excelled, as it has since New Year’s Day. One casualty was P.J. Tucker, who went 0-for-4 from the field in 21 minutes.

Tucker is rarely a notable offensive force. That has never been his purpose on the court, though he did score 17 points in Miami’s Game 3 win. Aside from that outburst, buttressed by going 3-of-6 from deep and adding four points from the charity stripe, Tucker has struggled in this series. He scored five points in each of Games 1 and 2, going 2-of-5 combined from deep in those two games, along with his Game 4 donut.

Even including his Game 3 surprise, Tucker is averaging only 6.75 points in this series, compared to the 8.82 he averaged in the 11 postseason games before the Eastern Conference Finals.

Boston’s switch-heavy defense and overall length bother Tucker in his preferred corner spot. Looking past his Game 3 shocker, Tucker has been downright abysmal in this series — those 10 points in the three other games are hardly enough to warrant concern.

There is a ripe opportunity here to fade Tucker, an opportunity that may not exist much longer.

PICK: P.J. Tucker Under 7.5 points (-130)

Perhaps “bounces back” is not the right verbiage, considering Horford had 13 rebounds, four blocks and three assists in Game 4. But he also had five points on only two field-goal attempts.

This handicapper had just endorsed betting on Horford to cash Over 11.5 points at -106 in Game 4, and the veteran responded by taking two shots from the field. Appreciate it, Al.

Actually, it is appreciated, because it creates a chance for a better payout tonight. None of the logic changes. This point total is just too low for someone who can hit two threes to take care of the bulk of the scoring need. An offensive rebound or two and a subsequent putback can have Horford knocking on the door of a tidy payout.

Better yet, the point total has fallen by nearly 10%. Horford’s prop is now 10.5 points, and at +100. No Game 4 showing warrants knocking this number by 10% while boosting the odds by six cents. This is just foolish.

Foolish enough for us to enjoy.

PICK: Al Horford Over 10.5 points (+100)

Lowry plays above his height

Lowry’s availability has been hit-or-miss this postseason, making for some small sample sizes. With that disclaimer aside, it’s worth nothing he has grabbed at least four rebounds in four of his seven playoff games, including snagging five in Game 4.

That comes after he averaged 4.5 rebounds per game in 63 games this regular season.

Lowry has never played like your typical 6-footer. He is wide and wily. He will find his way to the ball, even if Boston finds its way to another blowout. While betting on Tucker to not get open looks and Horford to score more both fit into the logic of the Celtics taking control of this series, Lowry’s rebounds may have little impact on the result.

They just feel inevitable.

Lowry would have a chance at four rebounds even if Marcus Smart was assured to play, and he is not a lock to do so yet. At that point, Lowry has to compete with Derrick White and Payton Pritchard for those long boards. He’ll win that matchup more times than not.

If Lowry has a decent chance at four rebounds against Smart, and he has a great chance if Smart is out, then the even odds of this prop are far more favorable to the bettor than they should be.

PICK: Kyle Lowry Over 3.5 rebounds (+106)

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