The importance of 3-point shots could spell disaster for the struggling New Orleans Pelicans on Friday night.
The Pelicans look to continue climbing out of an early-season hole as they host the Milwaukee Bucks. New Orleans enters the game ranked 27th in 3-point shooting at just 33.7 percent, which might make it difficult for the Pelicans to keep pace with a Bucks team that ranks third in long-range success rate (39.3 percent) while boasting the league's top offense at 119.8 points per game.
These are our favorite NBA free picks and predictions for Bucks vs. Pelicans on January 29.
Milwaukee Bucks at New Orleans Pelicans Betting Preview
Injuries
Bucks: None
Pelicans: PG Lonzo Ball (Questionable)
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Bucks have lost 15 of their last 18 road games vs. the Pelicans. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Pelicans.
NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonDraftKings hasn't moved off Bucks -7, save for adjusting the price at that number a few cents, from the flat -110 to -114. However, as of 5 p.m. ET, the Pelicans are taking 65 percent of bets and 62 percent of money on the spread for this 7:30 p.m. ET tipoff. The total opened 228.5 and this morning moved to 230, where it remains now, with 59 percent of bets/88 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Bucks might be off to an underwhelming start by their lofty standards, but they're still one of the most trusted cover plays when favored by a lot on the road. Milwaukee is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 games when giving seven or more points on the road, winning all but one of those games outright while scoring 120+ points eight times over that stretch.
Meanwhile, we can't overstate how important it is for the Pelicans to be at least somewhat competent from deep. They have shot an abysmal 30.3 percent from 3-point range in their 10 losses and 38.6 percent from long range in their six wins. That’s significant because the Bucks allow the NBA's fifth-highest 3-point rate at – you guessed it – 38.6 percent.
The Pelicans have played respectable ball at home, while the Bucks have been mediocre on the road. Seven points is a lot, even in today's blowout-heavy NBA – and we recommend taking the points in a game that could be closer than people expect.
PREDICTION: Pelicans +7 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The Pelicans still play at a below-average pace, but you wouldn't know it from their recent results. New Orleans has cashed the Over in five consecutive games, with four of them coming in at 230+ points. That plays right into the Bucks' hands: their games have averaged 230.6 points for the season, fourth-most of any Eastern Conference team.
Both teams are virtually completely healthy (Lonzo Ball is questionable but is expected to play). That makes a difference, as well, with both sides boasting plenty of offensive talent. This could easily fall flat if New Orleans' 3-point struggles continue, but there are too many positives with both offenses to fade the Over here.
PREDICTION: Over 228.5 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
There won't be any freebies when it comes to rebounding in Friday's game. The Pelicans come in ranked second in the NBA in total rebound rate at 53.2 percent, with the Bucks right behind them at 53.1 percent. With both teams boasting impressive glass-cleaning abilities, some players are going to take a hit in that department – and that includes Zion Williamson.
The former No. 1 overall pick is tied for 157th in the NBA in defensive rebound rate, with only his 27th-ranked offensive rebound rate salvaging his season average of 7.5. The Bucks pull down 80 percent of the rebounds on the defensive end, which caps Zion's already-muted rebounding upside and makes the Under on his Friday prop a nice option.
PREDICTION: Zion Williamson Under 7.5 Rebounds (-102)
Bucks vs Pelicans Betting Card
- Pelicans +7 (-110)
- Over 228.5 (-110)
- Zion Williamson Under 7.5 Rebounds (-102)
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