The Milwaukee Bucks are not facing a particularly strong team on Thursday, as they visit the Memphis Grizzlies, which means they are rightfully favored. It'll be the Bucks' first game away from home since they returned from a six-game road swing in mid-February.
Milwaukee has been an enigma all season long, beating up on bad teams and then failing to show up against good teams. Will that trend continue with a win in Memphis? Find out in our Bucks vs. Grizzlies picks and predictions for March 4.
Milwaukee Bucks at Memphis Grizzlies betting preview
Injuries
Bucks: No notable injuries to report.
Grizzlies: Grayson Allen SG (Questionable), Kyle Anderson SF (Questionable), Jaren Jackson Jr. PF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Under is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Grizzlies.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThe Bucks opened as 6-point favorites late Wednesday night at DraftKings, fell to -5.5 this morning, then this afternoon reached -6.5, where the number rests at 5 p.m. ET. Point-spread ticket count is 2/1 and money just beyond 3/1 on Milwaukee. The total moved from 235 to 233.5, then up to 234.5 and down to 234, all by midmorning today, with ticket count almost dead even and 59 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Milwaukee, 21-14 SU on the season, heads into Memphis at 17-18 ATS, which is a fair representation of who they have been. Instead of playing up to strong opponents and down to weaker opponents, the Bucks have largely dominated bad teams while playing like also-rans against the NBA's best. (Granted, they did earn an impressive win against a fully-loaded Clippers team over the weekend, but they followed that up by getting hammered at home against the Nuggets.)
The Grizzlies, 16-15 SU and 17-14 ATS on the year, have been similarly difficult to get a feel for, having gone 6-4 SU and ATS over their last 10. However, even with Jaren Jackson Jr. yet to play this year, Memphis has played some excellent ball recently, with two consecutive wins by a combined margin of 63 points.
The Grizzlies are capable of keeping this one close, but really, the Bucks' inconsistent form on the year helps us take them here, with a modest line not scaring us off.
PREDICTION: Bucks -6 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Despite their inconsistent play in 2021, Milwaukee's offense has maintained a strong level, as they currently rank Top-5 in offensive rating, offensive efficiency and points per game. That will happen when your engine is an out-of-this-world efficient scorer (at least when he isn't pulling up for a jumper). Any game with Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks' offense involved will have a decently high total.
That being said, the total here of 235 is a little high. The Grizzlies, 15-16 O/U, are in the bottom half of the league in offensive rating, efficiency and points per game. Though the Bucks have taken a step back defensively this season, they still protect the paint incredibly well, allowing the fourth-fewest points in the paint per game in the NBA. That's a bad matchup for a Grizzlies team scoring the most points per game in the paint in the NBA, at 55.4. They are at their best when Ja Morant straps on his jet-powered rollerskates and attacks the rim. That will be difficult for Morant against Milwaukee and as a result, the Grizzlies' offense and the total will take a hit.
PREDICTION: Under 235 (-110)
First half prop
If we're going to double down on a total, we need a good reason to do so — and we have one here. The Grizzlies own the league's worst O/U record in the first half of games, at 10-21, and are just 4-13 O/U at home (with an average total of 110.71). With struggles on offense anticipated against Milwaukee's rim protection, it's tough to envision that improving.
The Bucks, meanwhile, are second at 21-12-2 O/U in the first half. However, their standing is boosted by an early-season trend that had us fearing the First-Half Deer. They have been less strong early as of late, 5-5 O/U in the first half in their last 10, with an average total of 114.8. With a first-half total set at 115 and the onus falling on Milwaukee, the road team, for that to go Over, we'll double down and take the first half Under.
PREDICTION: Under 115 (-110)
Bucks vs Grizzlies betting card
- Bucks -6 (-110)
- Under 235 (-110)
- 1H Under 115 (-110)
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