The Phoenix Suns are rising quickly in the West. Phoenix is one of the hottest teams in the NBA, winning 15 of their last 18 games to sit alone in second place in the Western Conference standings.
The Suns will look to stay hot when they host Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors. The Dubs have lost two in a row and will have to upset the Suns as 11-point underdogs if they want to end their slide.
Find out who we like to cover the spread in our free NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Suns on Thursday, March 4 with tipoff scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET.
Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns betting preview
Injuries
Warriors: Kelly Oubre Jr. SG (Questionable), Stephen Curry PG (Out), Draymond Green PF (Out).
Suns: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Suns are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Suns.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonPhoenix opened as a 5-point favorite Wednesday afternoon at PointsBet USA, moved to -6.5 by midmorning today, then shot straight to -11 this afternoon after the news that Warriors guard Stephen Curry wouldn't play tonight. As of 7 p.m. ET, the line is Suns -11.5. "Heavy action on the Suns, accordingly, with 82 percent of spread bets and 92 percent of spread handle on Phoenix," PointsBet's Patrick Eichner said. The total opened at 223 and peaked at 226 during lunch hour, but receded on the Curry news and is now down to 221. The Over is getting 73 percent of bets/63 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
The Suns’ rise has been impressive. Bringing in Chris Paul has been an ideal fit for Devin Booker and encapsulates the team’s new perfect balance of young players and savvy veterans. And this 15-3 run is no fluke.
The Suns rank eighth in offensive rating and fifth in defensive rating. The defense has been solid all season long, but the offense has caught up. During this 18-game run, the Suns rank fourth in offensive rating.
Now, they’ll face a Warriors team in a tough spot. Golden State has dropped two in a row and continues to struggle to get consistent scoring outside of Steph Curry. And guess what? They won't have Curry for this one, as the team announced he and Draymond Green will sit this one out for rest.
The Warriors will have a hard time replacing Curry's season-average 29.7 points. In fact, they have trouble supporting him when he's in the game. Curry put up 35 points against a bad defensive Trail Blazers team in their last outing, but the rest of the team could manage just 71 on 40 percent shooting. That doesn't bode well against the Suns and their elite defense.
On top of that, Kelly Oubre Jr. is also questionable to play this game with a wrist injury. This is a lot of points, but it's hard to fade the Suns against a shorthanded Warriors team playing their second game in as many nights. Take the favorite.
PREDICTION: Suns -11 (-110)
Over/Under pick
As noted, the Suns are cooking on offense and over their last 12 games, they're averaging 120.7 points per contest. They shouldn’t have too much trouble getting near that average against this depleted version of the Warriors. But will Golden State do enough to send it Over the total of 223?
Simply put, we’re saying no. Even with Curry in the lineup the Warriors rank 21st in offensive rating and 14th in true shooting percentage. Captain Obvious here, but those numbers are not going to go up in Curry’s absence.
If things go to script in this one, the Suns should build up a big lead and then let up on the gas on offense, then lean on their defense that allows the third-fewest points per game. If the Warriors crack the 100-point mark in this game, it will be just barely. Bet the Under here.
PREDICTION: Under 223 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
One of those young players that have aided the Suns’ rise has been swingman Mikal Bridges. The third-year man out of Villanova has been known as an elite defender early in his career, but now he is adding some offense to the mix. Bridges is averaging 13.9 points per game and is shooting 42.6 percent from beyond the arc.
He’ll face a Warriors team that ranks in the middle of the pack when it comes to 3-point defense, but Bridges’ number here is too tempting to pass up. Oddsmakers have set his made threes prop at 1.5, a number he's gone over in five of his last six games. And over that span, he is shooting 61.9 percent from three. Bet on him to go Over once again versus the Warriors' B squad.
PREDICTION: Mikal Bridges Over 1.5 Made Threes (-130)
Warriors vs Suns betting card
- Suns -11 (-110)
- Under 223 (-110)
- Mikal Bridges Over 1.5 Made Threes (-130)
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