NBA Picks

The Raptors are within touching distance of ending a three-year playoff drought, and Barnes should be able to stuff the stat sheet today, even if a blowout scoreline cuts into his minutes. His assist numbers have come down to earth a little lately after a late-March surge, but he’s still hit this Over in 10 of his last 13 games.

Immanuel Quickley’s return from a foot injury is helping to relieve some of the playmaking burden on Barnes’ shoulders, but there are still plenty of possessions with Scottie at the controls and he's averaging 6.0 APG at home this season. Plus, the shorthanded Nets allowed 120+ points to the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks last week, and they should be easy pickings for Barnes here.

Looking to fend off any possibility of slipping into a play-in spot, the Raptors will be highly motivated to wipe the floor with the league’s worst offense. The Nets also remain littered with injuries, so I’ll take Toronto to not let up on Sunday.

The Charlotte Hornets check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).

In terms of scoring, the Hawks's excellent 122.1 points per game settles in as the 3rd-highest in the NBA over the last 15 games.. The matchup vs. Miami is a strong one for 3-point shots; when the Miami Heat have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting PFs have posted the highest 3-point percentage in the league this year (46.4%).. The 4th-speediest tempo road team in the league this year has been the Hawks.. The Hawks are expected to get a boost in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the speediest pace offense in the NBA this year (the Miami Heat).

Orlando's defensive rating over that same stretch is 115.3. That sounds like points until you realize the teams they've been running up and down the floor were actually capable of exploiting it. 

Garza and Scheierman can score, but the Celtics' reserves are not that team. They don't have enough overall firepower to punish a leaky defense, but they will scrap like crazy defensively. 

Take the Under and don't look back.

 

The Orlando Magic will likely experience a decrease in plays in this contest from competing against the slowest pace-of-play offense in the NBA this year (the Boston Celtics).. The Magic have been the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

George has scored 19+ in seven of his last nine, doing so in three straight at home. George has been stellar against Milwaukee this season, averaging 24.3 points and five triples in three matchups. George shot 52.1% from the floor and 53.6% from downtown in those games, scoring 19+ in each of them.

The Milwaukee Bucks are missing a number of key defenders, and George should be able to take full advantage. With Joel Embiid sidelined, George should be the second option on offense behind Tyrese Maxey, and I don’t expect a depleted Milwaukee team to slow him down in front of the home crowd in a critical game.

The 76ers have been the 2nd-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games.. The Bucks have played at the 3rd-most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Philadelphia 76ers.

The Pistons will likely get a boost in plays in this contest from sharing the court with the 5th-quickest tempo team in the league over the last 25 games (the Indiana Pacers).. The Pistons rank as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).. Over the last 5 games when they are on the road, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 5.4 free throws per game (7th-most in the league) against the Pacers, making it fairly effortless to get to the charity stripe.

The Pistons will likely get a boost in plays in this contest from sharing the court with the 5th-quickest tempo team in the league over the last 25 games (the Indiana Pacers).. The Pistons rank as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).

The Clippers have played at the 3rd-most lethargic tempo in the league this year.. The LA Clippers are expected to suffer a drop-off in possessions in this game from squaring off against the 7th-most sluggish pace offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Warriors).. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and result in bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Clippers grade out 2ndworst in in the NBA playing at home with a mere 8.6 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.

Relative to last season's 24.5 clip, LeBron James's points per game have fallen this season to 20.1.. The Lakers have played at the 9th-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and spark added opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Lakers grade out 2ndworst in in the NBA with only 9.5 offensive boards per game this year.

In regard to shots from downtown, the Utah Jazz's lackluster 33.0% rate of drained threes as the away team ranks 2nd-worst in the NBA this year.. The Los Angeles Lakers have played at the 9th-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Utah Jazz.. The matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers may be a challenging one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting PFs have attempted a measly 2.2 foul shots per game over the last 15 games (least in the NBA).

The Pelicans have played at the 2nd-quickest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.. The Timberwolves have played at the 8th-quickest tempo in the league over the last 25 games in their home stadium, which ought to lead to more possessions for the Pelicans.. Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark additional chances for scoring and assists, and the New Orleans Pelicans grade out 7th-best in in the NBA away from home with 12.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

Portland is just 3-4 against the spread at home as a double-digit favorite this season. Those three covers came against Washington, Brooklyn, and Milwaukee, and the Kings have been quietly covering all month.

The Trail Blazers are below .500 ATS when asked to lay big numbers on their own floor, and that's why we’re taking the points and Sacramento.

The 6th-fastest pace home team in the league over the last 20 games has been the Portland Trail Blazers.. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Portland Trail Blazers grade out best in in the league with 13.9 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games.

In regard to offense, the Thunder's terrific 128.6 points per game rates 2nd-most in the NBA over the last 5 games.. The matchup vs. Phoenix may be a good one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a monstrous 7.5 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Phoenix Suns are away from home (2nd-most in the league).

In regard to offense, the Thunder's terrific 128.6 points per game rates 2nd-most in the NBA over the last 5 games.

When it comes to scoring, the Nuggets's superb 122.0 points per game places best in the league this year.. The 4th-fastest tempo road team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Denver Nuggets.

When it comes to scoring, the Nuggets's superb 122.0 points per game places best in the league this year.. The 4th-fastest tempo road team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Denver Nuggets.