Yankees vs Padres Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Today’s MLB Game

The Yankees have been dominating teams away from home as of late and are going for back-to-back road series sweeps on Sunday. We break down their chances in our MLB picks below.

Phil Naessens - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst
May 26, 2024 • 09:41 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Clarke Schmidt New York Yankees MLB
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The New York Yankees have been a nightmare from the visitors’ dugout this season. The Bronx Bombers look for their second consecutive away series sweep when they meet the San Diego Padres for Game 3 of their three-game set at Petco Park this afternoon. 

New York's pitching staff leads the AL in several categories, and my Yankees vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks expect the good pitching to continue.  

Yankees vs Padres prediction

My best bet
Yankees moneyline (-120 at BetMGM)

My analysis
The New York Yankees have one of the toughest lineups to crack in baseball. Their stacked lineup from the one to nine hole puts fear into pitchers and the Bombers hitters grab most of the headlines.

New York's lumber has outscored the San Diego Padres 12-1 in this series. The lads in pinstripes have scored 21 runs across their last five away clashes while leading baseball in nearly every offensive category.

As big as the Bombers' bats have been, the starting pitching might be better; they lead the AL in earned run average (.279) and strikeouts per nine (9.1) with a filthy .261 BABIP. 

Righty Clarke Schmidt and his sweeper/cutter combo are a big reason for those eye-popping numbers; he’s allowed six earned runs across his past 30 1/3 frames on the bump and has a good matchup today against the Padres.

The Padres have a solid lineup, but don’t score many runs at Petco. They’ve plated a dozen runs across their last seven home games; their inability to score at home is why they're 10-17 at Petco Park this season and why they'll lose to the Yankees today.

That’s because Joe Musgrove and the Padres bullpen won’t slow down these Yankee bats. Musgrove is coming off his first start since spending nearly three weeks on the IL.

He gets the strikeouts at home (which the Yankees hardly ever do) but walks too many (something the Bombers do a lot of). He’s also served up nine bombs across 32 1/3 home frames which won’t work out well for him or a Padres bullpen ranked 25th in holds.

Yankees vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)

Yankees -1.5

Joe Musgrove Under 4.5 strikeouts

It’s hard to bet against the Yankees today. They've won eight of their last 10 and have covered the run line in each of those eight victories. 

Musgrove has struggled with his command this season. He’s also registered only four quality starts because he walks too many (3.07) batters which leads to home runs and early hooks.

He likely won’t last long against a lineup that has a low strikeout and high walk rate along with an MLB-best .777 OPS against righties. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Yankees vs Padres odds

Yankees vs Padres live odds

Yankees vs Padres opening odds

  • Run line: New York -1.5 (+140) | San Diego +1.5 (-165)
  • Moneyline: New York -120 | San Diego +100
  • Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8

Yankees vs Padres spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Money came in on the Yankees after last night's 4-1 victory. New York is trading as high as -130 from a -120-opening price.

  • That makes sense as 89% of the bets and 100% of the money at Caesars is on the Yankees to win their seventh consecutive away matchup. 

  • Totals markets that opened Over 8 (-110) are now trading as high as -120 with one market trading Over 8.5 (-102).  

  • Just one Under 8.5 (-115) market but plenty of Under 8 trading at odds ranging from +100 to -105. 

Yankees vs Padres trend

The Yankees are 6-0 SU in their last six road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Padres

Yankees vs Padres game info

Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date: Sunday, 5-26-2024
First pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin, NESN
Yankees starting pitcher: Clarke Schmidt
(5-2, 2.59 ERA)
Padres starting pitcher: Joe Musgrove
(3-4, 6.14 ERA)

Yankees vs Padres latest injuries

Yankees vs Padres weather

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