My MLB moneyline predictions for Tuesday’s slate feature plenty of pricey favorites, including the Chicago White Sox, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be found.
I’ve broken down the full board to identify which favorites are worth paying the premium for and where bettors should be cautious before laying the juice.
Before we dive in, be sure to check out all our MLB picks for Tuesday, Sept. 15.
MLB moneyline picks for Sept. 15
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Dodgersvs  Reds |
<<68%>> |
 A'svs  Rays |
<<68%>> |
 White Soxvs  Guardians |
<<42%>> |
 Brewersvs  Pirates |
<<68%>> |
 Philliesvs  Nationals |
<<66%>> |
 Tigersvs  Blue Jays |
<<56%>> |
 Oriolesvs  Mets |
<<46%>> |
 Bravesvs  Cubs |
<<57%>> |
 Yankeesvs  Twins |
<<62%>> |
 Giantsvs  Cardinals |
<<60%>> |
 Red Soxvs  Rangers |
<<55%>> |
 Royalsvs  Astros |
<<40%>> |
 Padresvs  Rockies |
<<64%>> |
 Marinersvs  Angels |
<<39%>> |
 Marlinsvs  Diamondbacks |
<<42%>> |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 9-15.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for Sept. 15
Dodgers vs Reds: Dodgers
Dodgers win probability: 68%
If the Dodgers only have to worry about Elly De La Cruz, they will be fine.
Especially with your mother's favorite country singer, Rhett Lowder, on the bump. He owns an 11.68 ERA and 2.03 WHIP while allowing a 50% hard-hit rate and 13% barrel rate.
He draws a Dodgers lineup that is red hot, sporting a 133 wRC+, .359 wOBA, and .816 OPS over its last six games.
Lowder is in for a rough night.
A's vs Rays: Rays
Rays win probability: 68%
It is the Rays or nothing here. The Rays offense is too hot at the moment, owning a 134 wRC+, .223 ISO, and .822 OPS. They draw Jack Perkins, who has a 5.54 ERA and 1.85 WHIP over his last three outings.
The Rays send out Griffin Jax, who has been lights out over his last five and should handle these cold Athletics bats.
I am not overthinking this one. Give me the Rays.
White Sox vs Guardians: White Sox
White Sox win probability: 42%
I take back what I wrote about the White Sox offense. They woke up last night against Gavin Williams and the Guardians. They now draw Foster Griffin, who has had some bright spots this season. However, over his last three starts, he owns an 8.78 ERA and 1.80 WHIP.
If the White Sox offense can keep its momentum rolling from last night, they should be fine against this struggling left-hander.
Brewers vs Pirates: Brewers
Brewers win probability: 68%
Brew Crew or nothing here.
With Jacob Misiorowski on the mound, sporting a 2.52 road ERA, and Antwone Kelly on the other side, who owns a 6.35 ERA overall this season, the Brewers have a clear pitching advantage.
The Brewers bats have been red hot and should be able to keep their winning ways alive.
Phillies vs Nationals: Phillies
Phillies win probability: 34%
The Washington Nationals bats have gone cold over their last few games, but over their last six, it has gotten pretty bad. The team owns an 81 wRC+, .649 OPS, and .138 ISO.
They draw Phillies southpaw Cristopher Sanchez, who has hit some speed bumps over his last three starts but still owns a 2.62 expected ERA while doing an incredible job limiting hard-hit balls.
Pay the juice. Phillies.
Tigers vs Blue Jays: Blue Jays
Blue Jays win probability: 56%
Big day for favorites, it seems, but how are we supposed to love a team that is throwing a guy out on the mound tonight with a 4.53 xERA, walking guys at a 15% clip and a 1.34 WHIP over his last three starts?
Meanwhile, the other team is humming while having a guy on the rubber posting a 2.71 ERA and 1.06 WHIP while allowing a barrel rate of just 3.61%.
Blue Jays.
Orioles vs Mets: Orioles
Orioles win probability: 46%
Death. Taxes. Why on Earth would we trust Sean Manaea?
The Mets bats may be on fire, but with Manaea on the mound this evening, he should ignite the Orioles bats. Old man Manaea has an 8.27 ERA and 1.59 WHIP while allowing a barrel rate of nearly 10% over his last three outings. The veteran lefty has gotten progressively worse with each start.
Braves vs Cubs: Cubs
Cubs win probability: 57%
I am already fading Atlanta Braves southpaw Martin Perez this evening due to his walk rate being one of the highest in baseball over his last few outings.
Another reason to back the Cubs is that Perez's underlying metrics also point to regression. He may own a 3.55 ERA over his last five starts, but his expected ERA during that stretch is 5.05.
On top of that, the Braves have not had a wRC+ in the triple digits in a very long time.
Back the hotter and much better team here.
Yankees vs Twins: Yankees
Yankees win probability: 62%
The New York Yankees are showing signs of a potential end-of-season run. With the return of their captain, this team’s morale is higher than it has been in months.
They own a 123 wRC+, .350 wOBA and .801 OPS over the last week. During that same stretch, the Twins own an 84 wRC+, .289 wOBA and .140 ISO.
Plus, Max Fried is on the bump for New York, who is always worth trusting.
Giants vs Cardinals: Team (Odds)
Cardinals win probability: 60%
Blade Tidwell, that is why. The kid has a 6.77 xERA and 1.57 WHIP while allowing a barrel rate of nearly 20% over his last three outings.
Cardinals right-hander Andre Pallante has done a great job limiting hard-hit and barreled balls over that same stretch while posting just a 3.38 ERA.
This is a complete fade on Tidwell's struggles.
Red Sox vs Rangers: Rangers
Rangers win probability: 55%
Another spot where both pitchers have been horrific, but one lineup stands out more: the Rangers.
The Red Sox have a sub-100 wRC+, .310 wOBA, and just a 36% hard-hit rate over their last six games. The Rangers have been slightly better and are worth backing here.
Royals vs Astros: Royals
Royals win probability: 40%
Some numbers lie, or do not tell the whole story. The Royals have seemed cold over their last few games, but they should be ready to explode any minute.
Kansas City has four hitters in its lineup with a barrel rate above 15% over their last 30 at-bats versus right-handed pitching. For that reason alone, give me the Royals and their heavy bats to boom this evening against Hunter Brown.
Padres vs Rockies: Padres
Padres win probability: 64%
According to Batters-Box, Kyle Freeland has the worst pitcher rating on the day, drawing seven elite-rated hitters and one with a strong rating. The veteran has always struggled at home, duh, it’s Coors. This season, he owns a 5.10 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and is allowing a near-10% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
The Padres have been red hot, owning a 143 wRC+, .852 OPS and .372 wOBA over their last six games.
Padres or nothing.
Mariners vs Angels: Angels
Angels win probability: 39%
We are going to sit here and act like Logan Gilbert has been nails over his last five outings? The Mariners should not be favored by this much, especially when Ryan Johnson has been lights out over his last three, posting a 2.65 ERA and 1.12 WHIP while allowing little to no hard-hit balls.
The Angels bats have not been a slouch either. Take the dog.
Marlins vs Diamondbacks: Marlins
Marlins win probability: 42%
Take the dog!
Neither starter in this matchup has been holding it down for their team, with both owning ERAs above 6.60 over their last three starts. Meanwhile, the Marlins bats have been pretty hot over their last 12 games, posting a 125 wRC+.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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