The Cleveland Guardians are alive and kicking in this ALDS series, but the elimination cloud still hangs over them ahead of tonight's must-win battle with the Chicago White Sox.
The good news for Cleveland is that young ace Parker Messick takes the ball opposite Chicago's overworked relievers, and he features in my top Guardians vs. White Sox prop picks alongside teammate Jose Ramirez, who came to life in yesterday's blowout win.
With the other Divisional Series matchups done and dusted, all eyes will be on Rate Field, and my free MLB picks and Guardians vs. White Sox predictions take a closer look at this Thursday, Oct. 8 clash.
Best Guardians vs White Sox props
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| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 total bases |
43% |
| Parker Messick Over 5.5 strikeouts |
57% |
 Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 RBI |
32% |
Prop pick #1: Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 total bases
This prop is playable up to 45%.
It's official: Jose Ramirez has arrived in this series. After two quiet games at Progressive Field, he ripped a double and a triple in yesterday's win, and I see him leading the charge in Game 4, too.
Ramirez has a hit and two walks against Chicago White Sox opener Hagen Smith, and he's posted an .834 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season. The Cleveland Guardians talisman is also 3-for-3 against Chicago reliever Jordan Hicks, one of the arms likely to follow Smith tonight.
Despite being a long-time fastball masher, Ramirez continues to see a steady diet of them (51% of pitches faced this year), and he logged a .300 batting average against the White Sox in 2026.
Prop pick #2: Parker Messick Over 5.5 strikeouts
I'd play this up to 60%, but also take the Over 6.5 at plus money.
A road elimination game is a big spot for Parker Messick, who is making just his second postseason start, but I'm grabbing this Over against a strikeout-prone White Sox lineup. Chicago finished the regular season with the fifth-most Ks (1,494), and that elevated strikeout rate has carried into the playoffs (63 through five games).
Messick racked up six punchouts in 4 1/3 innings in Game 1, and he's cashed this pick in nine of his last 14 outings.
The Guardians rookie has generated plenty of strikeouts vs. the White Sox this year, with 6+ Ks in four of five meetings. I see that continuing as long as the hosts stick with their aggressive plate approach.
Prop pick #3: Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 RBI
Munetaka Murakami has already delivered some highlight moments during this playoff run, and I like this price for another big contribution from the lefty slugger in Game 4. Murakami has piled up 16 RBI through his last 14 games, and 41 of his 77 RBI have come at Rate Field.
Then there's tonight's pitching matchup. Murakami has fared well against Messick, with two homers in just six at-bats, including a two-run blast in the series opener. Watch for Murakami to again sit on the sinker for big rips.
Sure, Murakami can be boom or bust, but he's driven in three runs so far in this series, and the long ball is always in play for a hitter who's clubbed 36 dingers in 2026.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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