The Chicago White Sox will be out for revenge after dropping the series opener to the Detroit Tigers with their ace on the mound.
Detroit took down Lucas Giolito and the White Sox with a 5-2 win to snap a five-game losing streak, but things won't be any easier for the club tonight. Now the Tigers will be up against lights-out left-hander Carlos Rodon.
Here are our best free MLB betting picks and predictions for Tigers vs. White Sox, with first pitch scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field.
Tigers vs White Sox odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonChicago opened -220 Tuesday afternoon at PointsBet USA, edged up to -225 this morning and is at -215 as of 5:15 p.m. ET. It's all White Sox on the moneyline, at 87 percent of tickets and 90 percent of cash. The total opened at 8 and this morning dipped to 7.5, where it remained all day, with 65 percent of bets on the Over, but 64 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameTigers vs White Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Casey Mize (1-2, 5.23 ERA): Mize, one of MLB's top pitching prospects, has struggled to adjust to big-league hitting. He sports a 6.24 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over 11 career starts dating back to last year and has been destroyed by the long ball. The 23-year-old has allowed 12 homers in 49 innings, including five in four starts this season, all of which have come in his last two outings. He was tagged for six runs on seven hits against the Kansas City Royals in his last start and five runs on seven hits to the Oakland Athletics before that. He'll face another difficult assignment tonight.
Carlos Rodon (3-0, 0.47 ERA): The left-hander has been on a roll early on, allowing one earned run over his three starts and throwing a no-hitter against Cleveland on April 14. He wasn't as dominant in his follow-up start six days later and battled control problems by issuing five walks, but he held the same Cleveland team to two runs (one earned) and struck out eight over five innings. Rodon has only allowed five hits this season and has struck out 24 in 19 innings. Tonight's matchup doesn't get any more favorable. Expect another gem.
Weather
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Key injuries
Tigers: Nomar Mazara OF (Out).
White Sox: Luis Robert OF (Out), Adam Engel OF (Out), Jace Fry RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-0-1 in the Tigers' last seven games as an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. White Sox.
Runline pick
What a story Rodon has been. The White Sox's former No. 3 overall pick has gone from an afterthought to one of baseball's best pitchers during the first month.
Rodon was limited to 42 1-3 innings the last two seasons, pitching to a 5.74 ERA and 1.46 WHIP, and had to earn a rotation spot out of spring training. He has more than made good on that, tossing a no-hitter in his second start of the season, and he takes a 0.47 ERA and 0.68 WHIP into a plus matchup against the Tigers. The lefty's average fastball velocity is up two-plus mph and he's touching upper-90s, turning into a major weapon again.
The 28-year-old will look to continue his hot run versus the lowly Tigers, who are 8-16, have the worst run differential in the majors, and are scoring the fewest runs per game at 3.08. Detroit struggles to score against any team, so expecting the Tigers to do much against Rodon is wishful thinking.
Chicago is a massive -220 favorite on the moneyline. A victory while up against the homer-happy Mize seems more than likely and the White Sox should be able to silence Detroit's light-hitting lineup and win by multiple runs with Rodon on the mound.
PREDICTION: White Sox -1.5 (-105)
Over/Under pick
The Tigers' offense is awful and is even worse against lefties.
Detroit has the highest strikeout rate in the majors against left-handers, is dead last in slugging, and second from the bottom in on-base percentage. FanGraphs' catch-all offensive stat, weighted runs created plus, has the Tigers at 58 percent below league average versus southpaws, better than only the Atlanta Braves.
Rodon, a hard-throwing lefty who generates lots of punchouts with his swing-and-miss arsenal, is a terrible matchup for a Detroit team that entered Monday night's series opener having scored two runs or fewer in five straight. The Tigers have gone Under in four consecutive games, are 2-8-1 O/U over their last 11, and have a 7-16-1 mark on the season, which has led to them cashing Unders more frequently than any team outside of the Kansas City Royals.
The White Sox have a powerful offense that ranks third in wRC+ and fifth in runs per game to accompany the second-lowest strikeout rate and second-best OBP. They've been led by the surprise play of rookie Yermin Mercedes, who leads the majors with a robust .432 average, while ranking third in OBP (.475) and sixth in OPS (1.137), but they suffered another blow with all-around threat Luis Robert joining Eloy Jimenez (who's expected to miss most of the season) on the injured list. That's two-thirds of their outfield on the sidelines.
Chicago (10-12 O/U) has gone Under in two of its last three games and we're expecting another with Rodon toeing the rubber.
PREDICTION: Under 7.5 (-105)
Tigers vs White Sox betting card
- White Sox -1.5 (-105)
- Under 7.5 (-105)
Picks made on 4/28/2021 at 12:45 p.m. ET
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