New York Mets superstar Jacob deGrom looks to continue his historic start to the 2021 MLB season when he takes the mound against the visiting Boston Red Sox.
The Red Sox have also had a strong start to the season, but deGrom will be their toughest test to this point and they will be sizeable underdogs for this game. But is the betting value good enough with Boston to fade deGrom?
Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Mets on Wednesday, April 28, with first pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET.
Red Sox vs Mets odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement reportBy Patrick Everson
It's Jacob deGrom Day, so it's no surprise that New York hit the board as hefty -240 chalk at FanDuel. At one point this morning, the moneyline stretched all the way to -310, but it dialed down to -255 by 4 p.m. ET. The Mets are attracting 74 percent of tickets and 61 percent of money. The total opened at 7, dipped to 6.5, rose to 7.5 and is now 7 (Under -120), with 61 percent of tickets/72 percent of cash on the Under.Check out the full line movement for this game
Red Sox vs Mets betting preview
Nick Pivetta (2-0, 3.48 ERA): Pivetta has gotten his first full season in Boston off to a solid start, allowing two earned runs or fewer in three of his four starts this season and limiting opponents to a .200 batting average. What the right-hander needs to work on is limiting the walks. Pivetta has allowed 14 base-on-balls in 20 2-3 innings of work.
Jacob deGrom (2-1, 0.31 ERA): What else can be said about deGrom that hasn’t been said already? Whatever, here’s some more: The right-hander looks like the most dominant starter since Pedro Martinez in his prime. He has three straight starts with 14 or more strikeouts and is the first pitcher in the modern era to have 50 or more strikeouts in his first four starts. Oh, he has allowed one earned run this year. Move along with your days. Nothing to see here.
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Red Sox: Alex Verdugo OF (Questionable), Christian Arroyo 2B (Questionable), Ryan Brasier RP (Out).
Mets: Brandon Nimmo OF (Questionable), Dellin Betances RP (Out), Seth Lugo RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-1-1 in the Mets’ last eight games overall and 2-0-1 in deGrom’s last three starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Mets.
Baseball games with favorites this big can be tough to bet. Is it worth laying all that juice with the team featuring the dominant starter? Or is the number large enough it doesn’t matter who is starting and the value with the underdog is too good to pass up?
This game is even tough to figure out due to the nature of the Mets. New York is just 2-2 in deGrom’s two starts this season and was almost 1-3 if not for a late-inning comeback against the Colorado Rockies. Here’s hoping the Mets figured out the solution and just let deGrom pitch a complete game like last time out against the Nationals.
The Red Sox have gotten off to a good start, particularly at the plate, but as the old adage goes, “great pitching beats great hitting,” and you shouldn’t expect that to be any different here. On top of that, their bats have slowed down a bit, scoring four runs or fewer in seven of their last 10 games, which includes being held to just one run in Game 1 of this series.
It’s hard to back the Mets to win by more than one run considering the trouble they have had scoring runs, but Pivetta has struggled with his command and will give the Mets too many opportunities in this one to build at least a small lead. deGrom does the rest.
PREDICTION: Mets -1.5 (-115)
You shouldn’t be surprised to see a total this low considering the way deGrom is dealing, no matter who is toeing the rubber against him. As mentioned, the Boston bats are slowing down and they are going against arguably the most dominant starter of this era. So, the team that is more likely to blow the Under here is the Mets.
New York is a decent hitting team but they've been unable to get those clutch hits with any sort of consistency, as the team ranks second-to-last in the MLB in scoring, plating just 3.4 runs per game. While Pivetta has had his issues with walks, he has been solid.
If Pivetta does get in trouble, Alex Cora can hand the ball to a bullpen that has been surprisingly good. The Red Sox relievers rank seventh in ERA, 11th in WHIP, and are allowing opponents to hit just .214 off them this season.
It will probably be a sweat but we’re betting this one stays under the number.
PREDICTION: Under 7 (-110)
Red Sox vs Mets betting card
- Mets -1.5 (-115)
- Under 7 (-110)
Picks made on 4/28/2021 at 12:30 p.m. ET
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