After beating the Los Angeles Dodgers for the second consecutive time with a 6-5 win last night, the Cincinnati Reds will go for the sweep Wednesday afternoon.
Cincinnati entered the series on a seven-game skid and was coming off back-to-back sweeps but will have a chance to make it three in a row against the heavyweight Dodgers with Sonny Gray on the mound. Gray will make this third start of the season while Los Angeles turns to Clayton Kershaw, who has been in terrific form early on.
Here are our best free MLB betting picks and predictions for Reds vs. Dodgers on April 28 at 4:10 p.m. ET.
Reds vs Dodgers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonWith Clayton Kershaw dealing today, Los Angeles opened a -210 favorite at FanDuel, stretched to -230 overnight, fell to -196 this morning, then rebounded to -235. As of 1 p.m. ET, the Dodgers are -205 while taking 87 percent of moneyline bets and 92 percent of moneyline dollars. The total toggled between 7.5 and 8 a few times and is now 7.5 (Over -114), with the Over drawing 59 percent of bets/64 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameReds vs Dodgers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Sonny Gray (0-1, 7.88 ERA): The right-hander will be making his third start after beginning the season on the injured list with back issues. He's been a mixed bag so far and is coming off a start in which he allowed five runs on six hits and walked three batters over 3 2-3 innings, but he has punched out six in each of his outings. Gray only made one spring training appearance, so he was limited to 71 pitches in his first start, but did get up to 86 his last time out, so perhaps he's built up enough arm strength to approach 100 against the Dodgers.
Clayton Kershaw (3-2, 2.56 ERA): It's easy to look a bit past Kershaw in a rotation that has Walker Buehler, Trevor Bauer, Julio Urias and Dustin May (!), but the southpaw is still one of the game's best pitchers, even if he isn't as dominant as he once was. Kershaw got touched up for five runs in his Opening Day start and has responded with a 1.38 ERA over his last four outings, striking out 29 and walking three. He remains a force.
Weather
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Key injuries
Reds: Shogo Akiyama OF (Out), Aristides Aquino OF (Out), Michael Lorenzen RP (Out).
Dodgers: A.J. Pollock OF (Questionable), Cory Knebel RP (Out), Victor Gonzalez RP (Out), David Price RP (Out), Joe Kelly RP (Out), Zach McKinstry 2B (Out), Cody Bellinger OF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in Kershaw's last four starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Dodgers.
Runline pick
The Dodgers didn't lose three games in a row once last season on their way to the franchise's first World Series victory since 1988. But after dropping two straight to the Reds following a one-run loss to the San Diego Padres, they enter today's matinee looking to avoid a fourth consecutive defeat.
Los Angeles has lost five of its last six and seven of nine since reeling off an eight-game winning streak. But it's no time to fret about the Dodgers, as four of those losses have been by one run and they still have a share of MLB's best record. This is a normal hiccup for any team during a long, 162-game season. And a good way to get back on track is sending Kershaw, the veteran ace, to the hill.
Kershaw has looked great through five starts. He isn't walking anyone and has punched out six-plus batters in four straight outings, leading to a 7.75 strikeout-to-walk rate which is a Top-10 mark in MLB. The lefty went four straight starts to begin the season without allowing a homer before the Padres tagged him for three, but overall is doing an excellent job at keeping the ball in the yard. That combination of preventing homers, not issuing many free passes, and striking out batters at an above-average clip has led to his best FIP (2.73) since 2016.
The 31-year-old Gray, meanwhile, struggles with control but has upped his strikeout rate considerably since going to the National League in 2019, and is certainly capable of shutting down a tough lineup if he can avoid self-inflicted damage. The Dodgers obviously constitute a tough lineup and this isn't the worst spot to take the Reds as a heavy underdog, but it's hard to imagine them coming into Los Angeles and sweeping the majors' best team, especially going up against Kershaw.
Los Angeles offers no value on the moneyline as a -220 favorite, so Dodgers on the runline is the play for today.
PREDICTION: Dodgers -1.5 (+105)
Over/Under pick
The Reds have one of the majors' best offenses, ranking first in homers, second in slugging, fourth in on-base percentage, fifth in batting average, and sixth in FanGraphs' weighted runs created plus (one spot behind the Dodgers).
But Cincinnati has been considerably worse against left-handed pitching, which isn't all that surprising when you consider that two key hitters at the top of its order, hot-hitting Jesse Winker and Joey Votto, are two lefty bats who fare much better versus righties. Winker is hitting an absurd .397.443/.740 with six bombs, but all of those homers have come against right-handers and he's slugging nearly 600 points better against them.
They will of course be going up against not only a lefty but a left-hander who destroys hitters from the left side. Left-handed hitters are batting .100/.129/.100 against Kershaw this season with no extra-base hits. That big power the Reds offer is likely to evaporate today.
Los Angeles can mash, too, and has six regulars with an OBP over .350, led by Max Muncy's .455 mark and Justin Turner at .432. Though, as mentioned, Gray can deal and he has a 3.23 ERA with 289 strikeouts in 239 1-3 innings since joining the Reds.
The first two games of this series went Over, but a Gray-Kershaw duel stands a good chance to reverse that trend. We're expecting both starting pitchers to do their part in keeping runs off the board and are siding with the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 8.0 (-120)
Reds vs Dodgers betting card
- Dodgers -1.5 (+105)
- Under 8.0 (-120)
Picks made on 4/28/2021 at 10:01 a.m. ET
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