We went 2-1 SU yesterday by targeting pitchers coming off heavy workloads.
While there aren’t as many of those spots today, there are still plenty of strong angles and edges to attack in the pitcher markets for a full Wednesday slate.
Headlined by fading Tarik Skubal's strikeout total, here are my three favorite MLB picks for Wednesday, June 18.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for June 18
Skubal u8.5 strikeouts (-120 at DraftKings)
Blackburn u14.5 outs recorded (+130 at bet365)
Corbin o1.5 walks allowed (+135 at DraftKings)
Today's SP best bets
Pirates vs. Tigers
The angle: Rain, workload, and a high total
The move: Tarik Skubal Under 8.5 strikeouts (-120 at DraftKings)
Tarik Skubal is coming off a season-high 98 pitches five days ago, and while that might not seem like a heavy workload, the Detroit Tigers ace typically doesn’t get a long leash — and there are a few factors that could cut his outing short today.
There’s a serious risk of rain in Detroit, with showers projected around first pitch. That could mean a delay, which isn’t ideal considering Skubal has failed to eclipse 8.5 strikeouts in three straight outings.
Nine Ks is a big ask — especially for a starter who doesn’t consistently reach 95 pitches and will have to deal with some unpredictable East Coast weather.
Mets at Braves
The angle: Blackburn is coming off a relief appearance and has little trust go long
The move: Paul Blackburn Under 14.5 outs (+130 at bet365)
Paul Blackburn's last appearance was out of the bullpen five days ago, where the New York Mets right-hander threw just 17 pitches. He also got rocked and allowed four runs on four hits while recording just one out.
In his two previous starts before that, Blackburn threw 71 and 77 pitches, going 1-1 O/U on this number.
There is a possibility that he has a blueprint today that might not include even pitching in the fifth inning. There is not much trust with Blackburn, and this plus-money Under is worth the potential sweat.
Royals vs. Rangers
The angle: It's another chance to fade Corbin, who is coming off a heavy workload
The move: Patrick Corbin Over 1.5 walks allowed (+135 at DraftKings)
Patrick Corbin threw 91 pitches in his last start, which was a five-game high. It’s nothing crazy, but the Texas Rangers southpaw has been punching above his numbers all year, and this Over at plus money is an easy add to the card.
In games where Corbin has thrown 87+ pitches, he is 4-1 to the Over on this prop the following start, while going 7-5 to the Over on it across the entire season. The Kansas City Royals are a low-percentage walk team, but that is giving us a solid plus-money price that I’d play to +115.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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