The 10-4 Los Angeles Chargers head to AT&T Stadium as a road underdog to face the 6-7-1 Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, December 14.
My early Chargers vs. Cowboys predictions and NFL picks expect Los Angeles to dominate the time of possession for a fourth consecutive game and hand Dallas a third straight loss in Week 16.
Chargers vs Cowboys predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Chargers vs Cowboys spread pick: Chargers +1.5
The Los Angeles Chargers have consecutive outright wins as an underdog, while the Dallas Cowboys have lost outright in back-to-back games as a favorite. Los Angeles has also won six of seven to improve to 10-4 for the campaign, while Dallas is all but officially eliminated from the postseason at 6-7-1.
Additionally, just when it looked like the Dallas defense might be turning the corner, the Cowboys have given up 78 points while allowing the fourth-highest EPA per play the past two weeks.
Dallas now sits 30th in defensive DVOA while allowing the third-highest EPA per play and second-most points per game (30.0).
There’s no denying the potential the Cowboys have on offense, but the Chargers have allowed the ninth-fewest points per game (20.3) and sport the second-longest drive average in the NFL. So, I anticipate the Chargers will lean on the running game to set quarterback Justin Herbert up for success against the susceptible Dallas defense.
A lot of Herbert’s advanced metrics are down this season, but he’s still 11th in dropback success rate during the highlighted 6-1 stretch, and he’s also been instrumental in winning consecutive games against the reigning AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs and Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles over the past two weeks.
Early Chargers vs Cowboys total pick: Under 49.5
I expect Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh to try and steer clear of a road shootout.
As noted, Los Angeles looks to shorten the game with clock-churning drives, and the Bolts have dominated the time of possession in three consecutive games while rushing the ball 110 times alongside Herbert’s 75 passing attempts.
It’s a recipe for success, and with the Cowboys allowing the seventh-most yards per carry and surrendering the third-most rushing first downs, Harbaugh and the Los Angeles rushing attack are set up to once again control the game and time of possession in Week 16.
Additionally, the Bolts have played to the Under in four of their past five, and this is the highest total of the season for Los Angeles.
Chargers vs Cowboys odds
- Chargers vs. Cowboys spread: Cowboys -1.5
- Chargers vs. Cowboys moneyline: Chargers +110, Cowboys -130
- Chargers vs. Cowboys Over/Under: 49.5
How to watch Chargers vs Cowboys
- Chargers vs. Cowboys matchup
- Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Dallas, TX
- Venue: AT&T Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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