Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Series takes place tonight between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, and my Red Sox vs. Yankees props have found value on both sides. The first pitch is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (NBC) from Yankee Stadium.
My Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions start things off with AL Cy Young frontrunner Cam Schlittler, followed by Ben Rice and Boston starter Payton Tolle.
Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, Sept. 29.
Best Red Sox vs Yankees props
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Schlittler Over 7.5 strikeouts |
47% |
| Rice Over 0.5 hits |
60% |
 Tolle Under 1.5 walks |
59% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: Cam Schlittler Over 7.5 strikeouts
Play up to 50%.
Cam Schlittler had an electrifying regular season, and he's the likely winner of the AL Cy Young. The New York Yankees righty finished third in strikeouts, racking up 239 Ks in just 193 2/3 innings.
Schlittler posted eight punchouts or more in four of his final six starts leading into the postseason, and he struck out eight Boston Red Sox hitters on August 29.
In fact, the youngster compiled 27 Ks in 24 1/3 frames against Boston this season. He'll continue to dominate the Red Sox tonight, who have struck out 8.68 times per contest on the road in 2026.
Prop pick #2: Ben Rice Over 0.5 hits
Play up to 63%.
Ben Rice enters the postseason swinging a hot bat. The 27-year-old is hitting .318 over his last six games while posting a 61.5% hard-hit rate and 23.1% barrel rate, giving him one of the louder contact profiles in the Yankees lineup.
Rice has recorded six hits across his previous four contests, including a two-hit performance when last seen on Saturday.
He’s only 1-for-3 in his career against Payton Tolle, so there isn’t much to take from the head-to-head sample. However, Tolle has shown some vulnerability against left-handed hitters.
With Rice making this much quality contact, one hit feels very attainable in Game 1.
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Prop pick #3: Payton Tolle Under 1.5 walks
Play up to 63%.
Payton Tolle has been consistently pounding the strike zone, allowing just 1.93 BB/9 over the last month. He’s stayed under two walks in two of his previous three appearances, and has allowed limited free passes when facing the Yankees this season.
Across 13 innings against New York, Tolle has issued just three walks. The Bronx Bombers have also been more aggressive against left-handed pitching, which should help keep Tolle’s walk count down.
Considering his recent command and previous success against this lineup, I like the southpaw to stay Under 1.5 walks in the series opener.
- Prop picks: 20-22, -3.90
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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