My MLB moneyline predictions for Wednesday’s slate feature plenty of heavy favorites, including the Milwaukee Brewers, but there are still value opportunities.
I’ve broken down the full board to determine which favorites are worth laying the juice on and where bettors should think twice before paying the premium.
Before we dive in, check out all our MLB picks for Wednesday, Sept. 16.
MLB moneyline picks for Sept. 16
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 White Soxvs  Guardians |
38% |
 Giantsvs  Cardinals |
40% |
 Yankeesvs  Twins |
59% |
 Tigersvs  Blue Jays |
56% |
 Dodgersvs  Reds |
66% |
 A'svs  Rays |
64% |
 Brewersvs  Pirates |
55% |
 Philliesvs  Nationals |
64% |
 Oriolesvs  Mets |
56% |
 Bravesvs  Cubs |
58% |
 Red Soxvs  Rangers |
50% |
 Royalsvs  Astros |
60% |
 Padresvs  Rockies |
40% |
 Marinersvs  Angels |
44% |
 Marlinsvs  Diamondbacks |
56% |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 9-16.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for Sept. 16
White Sox vs Guardians: White Sox
White Sox win probability: 38%
After nearly securing the win last night but falling short after missing a pop fly that had a .092 xBA, the White Sox continue their losing ways toward the back half of the season.
However, their bats have come alive this week, which makes them an intriguing look. It is concerning, but this is a spot to see how hungry this team is for October.
Parker Messick is on the mound this evening, and he has been pure nails all season long, but the White Sox have destroyed lefties this season.
Back the dog!
Giants vs Cardinals: Giants
Giants win probability: 40%
Matthew Liberatore has been putrid over his last few outings, giving up a ton of hard contact and barreled balls. Giants right-hander Anthony Molina has done the opposite, keeping teams under a 38% hard-hit rate and 9% barrel rate over his last five outings.
Neither offense has been hot lately, so take the dog, who draws the struggling arm.
Yankees vs Twins: Yankees
Yankees win probability: 59%
It's the Yankees here.
One, Carlos Rodon has been lights out this season. Two, Zebby Matthews.
Matthews has a 5.74 ERA and has allowed a barrel rate over 10% over his last three starts. The New York bats are wide awake and should be able to tee off on the right-hander.
Tigers vs Blue Jays: Blue Jays
Blue Jays win probability: 56%
Some will see the old man on the mound and rush to fade Max Scherzer, but the veteran has been very strong in his last three starts. Sure, a 4.58 ERA is not sexy, but a 3.05 xERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 4.29% walk rate are pretty solid.
The Blue Jays are pushing for a postseason berth. Their bats need to stay alive, and with Keider Montero posting an ERA north of 6.00 over his last three outings, they should be fine.
Dodgers vs Reds: Dodgers
Dodgers win probability: 66%
Take the run line...
This is a moneyline piece, but the same result from last night will carry over to this afternoon.
Why? Andrew Abbott sports a 9.28 ERA, 5.63 xERA, and 1.73 WHIP while allowing a 13% barrel rate over his last five starts. In his last three, his ERA has ballooned to 16.00.
A's vs Rays: Rays
Rays win probability: 64%
The Athletics bats are too cold to keep up with the Rays right now. Plus, right-hander Nick Martinez will likely shut them down for a few innings, as he does not allow many hard-hit or barreled balls.
If the A's are going to keep pitching to Junior Caminero, let 'em.
Brewers vs Pirates: Brewers
Brewers win probability: 55%
We do not often get the Brewers at a reasonable price, but today against Jared Jones, the Brew Crew have just that.
Sure, Jones has been great, but the Milwaukee bats own a 164 wRC+, .410 wOBA, and .947 OPS over their last six games. They send out Logan Henderson to hold it down, as he sports a 1.42 ERA, 2.08 xERA, and 0.37 WHIP over his last three outings.
Phillies vs Nationals: Phillies
Phillies win probability: 64%
The Nationals are frozen at the dish, posting just a .138 ISO, .288 wOBA, and .649 OPS as they draw Phillies right-hander Zack Wheeler. The veteran starter has been lights out in his last three starts and should be able to hold down the Nationals’ cold bats.
Phillies or nothing.
Orioles vs Mets: Mets
Mets win probability: 56%
The combination of how poorly Chris Bassitt has been over his last five starts, plus how cold the Orioles bats have been in comparison to the Mets bats, means it has to be the Mets here.
Robert Stock owns a 2.79 ERA while allowing just a 6.25% barrel rate over his last three starts. Meanwhile, the Mets bats are on fire, owning a 130 wRC+, .812 OPS, and .220 ISO over their last 12 games.
Braves vs Cubs: Cubs
Cubs win probability: 58%
The Chicago Cubs may walk their way to a victory this evening, as JR Ritchie has a jaw-dropping 15.63% walk rate over his last five games. On top of that, he has a 5.69 xERA and 12.20% barrel rate.
Chicago walks at a high rate, and they also have plenty of bats that can barrel the ball up.
This is a Cubs or nothing spot for me.
Red Sox vs Rangers: Red Sox
Red Sox win probability: 50%
Personally, I am pretty done trusting MacKenzie Gore. He is very unreliable. Does he strike out guys at a high rate? Yes, but he also gives up a lot of contact in between, which leads to rallies.
Over his last three starts, he owns a 7.30 ERA and 2.19 WHIP. The Red Sox should be able to get an early lead if this is what they get from Gore.
Royals vs Astros: Astros
Astros win probability: 60%
With the Royals' bats cooling off over the last few weeks and Daniel Lynch entering tonight with a 6.08 ERA over his last three starts, it looks like we have to back Houston here.
Cristian Javier has a 2.91 xERA over his last five outings while allowing a hard-hit rate of only 26%. Yordan Alvarez was on Mars last night. Hopefully, he can keep that rolling here.
Padres vs Rockies: Rockies
Rockies win probability: 40%
Give me the Pebbles to keep the runs coming!
The Colorado Rockies went off for nine runs last night in their win over the Padres. They now draw tight pants Robbie Ray, who has a 7.43 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, and 42% hard-hit rate over his last three outings.
Take the scrappy dog here.
Mariners vs Angels: Angels
Angels win probability: 44%
Angels yet again!
Why is George Kirby a 56% favorite here? The right-hander has a sub-6.00 ERA over his last five outings. Shockingly, left-hander Yusei Kikuchi has been very solid in his last three, with a 1.59 ERA while allowing just a 6.52% barrel rate.
The Mariners bats have been hot, but so have the Angels, who draw the worse arm.
Marlins vs Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks win probability: 56%
I trust Merrill Kelly here. The right-hander has been a favorite fade of mine all season, but over his last few starts he has improved drastically, with a 2.08 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in his last three.
Ryan Gusto has fallen off a cliff, with a 5.55 xERA in his last three.
Both lineups have been hitting the ball very well, but take the team drawing the struggling arm.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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