Red Sox vs Dodgers Sunday Night Baseball Prop Bets: Crawford, O'Neill Shine in SoCal

Prop bet #1: Tyler O'Neill Over 1.5 total bases

James Paxton gets the nod for the Los Angeles Dodgers and he’s on my fade list. The Big Maple sports a 4.82 xERA, 4.95 FIP, and 5.36 xFIP while allowing plenty of hard contact, ranking in the 11th percentile in average exit velocity. 

The southpaw has been particularly poor against right-handed hitters, posting a 5.50 FIP and 1.55 WHIP with a microscopic 2.3% K-BB%. He’s not striking batters out while issuing too many walks and getting hit around. 

The thing is, the Boston Red Sox haven’t hit lefties very well as a team. Rather than fade Paxton via one of his props, I’ll look for the few Boston hitters who do hit lefties well and play their props instead. 

One who stands out is Saturday’s standout Tyler O’Neill, who homered twice and drove in four runs to raise his slash line to .263/.354/.517. The 29-year-old has always possessed talent but has scarcely put it all together while dealing with a plentitude of injuries throughout his career.

Well, he’s healthy now (knock on wood) and is performing great. O’Neill has feasted upon LHP with a 187 wRC+ and .333 ISO, or in simpler terms with a .309 BA and 1.076 OPS. I’ll bet on him exceeding his total bases prop of 1.5 for plus money.

Tyler O'Neill prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+120 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Kutter Crawford Over 17.5 outs recorded

Kutter Crawford is having a breakout season, sporting a 3.00 ERA as he heads into the second half. His 3.69 xERA and 3.77 FIP do indicate some regression soon, but nothing drastic. The 28-year-old hurler excels at limiting hard contact, ranking in the 79th percentile in hard-hit rate. He keeps batters guessing with his pitch mix, ranking in the 90th percentile in chase rate. 

The positive metrics don’t stop there as Stuff+ (107) and Location+ (106) are both fans of his offerings — Kutter ranks 18th among qualified starters in the former and eighth in the latter. 

He’s been particularly effective outside the hitters haven that is Fenway Park, posting a 2.35 ERA and 1.01 WHIP on the road. While the Dodgers are never an easy matchup, they’ve been scuttling without Mookie Betts in the lineup and rank 12th in wOBA and wRC+ against RHP in July — still solid, but closer to average than elite. 

Kutter’s outs recorded prop is set at 17.5 for Sunday Night Baseball. That’s a number he’s cleared in each of his last eight starts and six of his last seven on the road, so I fancy his chances of successfully navigating six innings.

Kutter Crawford prop: Over 17.5 outs recorded (-136 at BetRivers)

Prop bet #3: Gavin Lux Under 0.5 hits

Gavin Lux has been an abject disaster this season with a .217/.270/.312 slash line and 67 wRC+. He isn’t getting on base and isn’t hitting for power, exemplifying L.A.’s struggles at the bottom of the order and in the middle of the infield outside of Betts. 

The 26-year-old had a big day on Saturday, notching a home run and a double. I’m betting that his newfound success won't carry over to the next day given his moribund performance through 282 plate appearances. 

Lux is almost always in the lineup these days, especially against RHP. This is a tougher matchup than it appears at first as Crawford has reverse splits and has been very tough on left-handed hitters, holding them to a .190 BA and .252 OBP. If we isolate for away starts, those numbers fall even further to a .178 BA and .239 OBP. 

The bookmakers are offering -145 odds on Lux to record a hit and +110 for him to not. I find the “No” odds generous considering he’s gone hitless in nine of his last 13 games started.

Gavin Lux prop: Under 0.5 hits (+110 at bet365)