The New York Yankees will attempt to keep their season alive tonight at Yankee Stadium.
They have the better pitcher on the mound in Max Fried, and that's reflected in my Rays vs. Yankees prop picks for Game 3.
Let's dive deeper into my MLB picks for Wednesday, Oct. 7.
Best Rays vs Yankees props
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs |
60% |
 Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs |
51% |
| Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs |
53% |
Prop pick #1: Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs
This is a difficult spot for Chandler Simpson, and I’m on the Under to 62%.
Max Fried was miserably tough on left-handed bats throughout the year, holding them to a .167 average and 23 FB%.
Simpson will see a lot of sinkers and sweepers, which doesn’t bode well for him. He posted a .250 average against those two pitches thrown by lefties. That’s miles below his season average of .306.
Fried also finished in the 90th percentile in ERA this season. Isolating left-handed starters in the 70th percentile or higher, Simpson cleared 1.5 H+R+R in just six of 18 games (33.3%).
Prop pick #2: Luis Garcia Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs
I’m on Luis Garcia Jr. for 2+ H+R+R up to 56%.
Tampa Bay Rays starter Nick Martinez is a high-contact, low-strikeout pitcher. That plays perfectly into the hands of Garcia Jr.
He faced 26 right-handed starters during the regular season who ranked in the 30th percentile or lower in preventing contact and limiting strikeouts. Garcia Jr. recorded multiple H+R+R in 17 of those contests (65.4%), averaging exactly 3.0 H+R+R.
Martinez will attack Garcia Jr. with a ton of changeups, sinkers, and cutters. That’s not a bad thing – he recorded averages of .240, .352, and .333 against those three pitches.
Prop pick #3: Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs
I’m going to double dip with New York Yankees bats and play Cody Bellinger for two H+R+R up to 55%.
Bellinger hit .289 against Martinez’ three most-used pitches during the regular season while striking out in just 11.8% of his at-bats.
Bellinger has plenty of power and Martinez’ inability to generate punchouts will give him a better chance of showcasing it.
We’ve seen that head-to-head as well. Bellinger is 5-17 (.294 average) with a double, a home run, and nine hard hit balls against Martinez.
He is also a .288 hitter over more than 100 ABs vs. Rays relievers, making him a threat throughout the entire game.
- Prop picks: 9-9, -1.75 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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