The Cleveland Guardians (54%) are slight home favorites over the Tampa Bay Rays as they look to reclaim a series lead on Thursday, Oct. 15.
I'm expecting a competitive game with a few key bats making noise. Let's get into three Rays vs. Guardians prop picks, with All-Star slugger Junior Caminero serving as the headliner.
For MLB picks, Dustin Saracini breaks down the full game with his Rays vs. Guardians predictions ahead of this 1 p.m. ET matinee at Cleveland's Progressive Field.
Best Rays vs Guardians props
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Travis Bazanna Over 0.5 hits |
58% |
 Junior Caminero Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs |
45% |
| Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 hits |
57% |
Prop pick #1: Travis Bazzana Over 0.5 hits
I’m on Travis Bazanna to pick up a knock and see value to 62%.
Bazzana is making good contact in the playoffs but hasn’t necessarily been rewarded for it.
He ranks third on the Cleveland Guardians with a .367 xwOBA, which has resulted in a .237 wOBA. His .264 expected batting average is miles above his actual .167 average, so we have plenty of indicators suggesting better results are coming his way.
He has hits in both games in this series, so the tide may already be turning.
Prop pick #2: Junior Caminero Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
I like Junior Caminero for multiple HRR and would back him to 51%.
Caminero was a force against right-handed pitchers during the regular season, hitting .271 and ranking in the 92nd percentile or higher in xSLG and hard-hit rate.
Gavin Williams is an elite strikeout artist but gives up plenty of power to righties, with a third-percentile hard-hit rate.
Opposing batters hit him hard when they make contact, and Caminero is the perfect candidate to take advantage.
Caminero has homered against Williams and posted a .230 ISO or higher against each of the three pitches he throws at least 20% of the time vs. righties.
He also has five hits over five games in these playoffs, and enters riding a four-game hit streak.
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Prop pick #3: Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 hits
I like Jonathan Aranda to get his first hit of the series and would back him to 60%.
Aranda hit .283 against right-handed pitchers this year and excelled against Williams' arsenal. Aranda posted averages of .276, .286, and .339 when facing Williams’ three most-used pitches.
His underlying profile is also exceptional during the playoffs. Aranda is rocking a .393 xBA and leads all players in this series in both hard-hit balls (14) and xwOBA (.526).
Look for the results to follow this afternoon.
- Prop picks: 9-9, -1.75 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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