Game 3 of the ALCS is today at 1 p.m. ET at Progressive Field, and I've found my best Rays vs. Guardians home run predictions.
My favorite targets include Jose Ramirez, Jonathan Aranda, and Liam Hicks.
Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, Oct. 15, in addition to our full Rays vs. Guardians predictions.
Best Rays vs Guardians home run picks
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Jonathan Aranda
Jose Ramirez
Rays home run pick: Jonathan Aranda
Play up to 15%.
Jonathan Aranda may have a .222 average with just one home run this postseason, but his underlying metrics scream value. Aranda owns a 77.8% hard-hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate in the playoffs, while his average exit velocity sits just below 100 mph.
Aranda is also putting 41.2% of his postseason batted balls in the air. Gavin Williams has been dominant, but he wasn’t completely immune to the long ball at home during the regular season.
With Cleveland's bullpen also showing some vulnerability of late, Aranda has multiple ways to punish a mistake and leave the yard.
Guardians home run pick: Jose Ramirez
Play up to 17%.
Jose Ramirez has been one of the Cleveland Guardians' few power sources this postseason, clubbing two home runs in seven games. J-Ram has gone deep in two of his last four games and owns a .333 ISO in the 2026 playoffs.
The third baseman hasn't left the yard in this series, but he's putting the ball in the air consistently, with a 50% fly-ball rate in the ALCS. He'll face Griffin Jax today, who was more susceptible to the long ball on the road during the regular season.
With Ramirez already showing plenty of power in October and continuing to get the ball in the air, he's well-positioned to capitalize if Jax leaves one over the plate.
Long-shot home run pick: Liam Hicks
Play up to 12%.
Liam Hicks doesn’t have the prettiest underlying numbers, but there’s enough in the matchup to justify a swing at this price. The left-handed hitter posted a .234 ISO, .510 SLG, and 137 wRC+ with 17 of his 18 regular-season home runs against right-handed pitching.
Hicks is also coming off a 2-for-3, two-RBI performance in Game 2 and is projected to bat cleanup against Williams in Game 3.
Williams also allowed 14 home runs to left-handed hitters during the regular season.
At an implied probability of 8%, Hicks has enough platoon power and lineup opportunity to make him an appealing long-shot option
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Guardians vs Rays home run combo
I'm taking a more balanced approach with this home run combo instead of stacking three obvious names at short prices.
Ramirez gives the ticket a proven middle-of-the-order threat, while Aranda and Hicks provide more upside at longer odds. I also like that this combo isn’t entirely dependent on one team, with exposure to both Cleveland and Tampa Bay.
If either starter runs into trouble, all three hitters could also get opportunities against the bullpen later in the game. It’s an aggressive combo, but the odds make the overall payout appealing.
- HR picks: 22-114, -8.03 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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