The New York Yankees will look to win their second straight game against the Texas Rangers when the two teams meet tonight.
My Rangers vs. Yankees predictions back the red-hot bat of Aaron Judge to do more damage against Texas.
Find out why in my MLB picks for May 21.
Rangers vs Yankees prediction
My Rangers vs Yankees best bet: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases (+125 at bet365)
As Jacob deGrom has seemingly proved once again, the rumors of his demise were greatly exaggerated. At 37, deGrom will come into this game with the second-lowest ERA he's had in the last four years.
However, there's a little more to the story than meets the eye, and I've identified a player prop to exploit this. I'm taking the best player and hitter on the field at an appealing +125 price to go Over 1.5 bases because this matchup isn't as difficult as most would think.
Also, that +125 price? It's been a while. A quick check of the database of closing numbers this season says it will be the highest if it stays there.
After spending the first few sentences complimenting deGrom, I must now discuss the negatives. The dark side of that impressive ERA is an xERA 1.5 runs higher than the actual results produced.
In addition, it's not like he's gotten a bunch of soft contact; he'll come into tonight with above-average hard-hit and barrel rates. That tilts your eyes toward Aaron Judge for obvious reasons, but the true edge here is the pitch mix he's expected to see.
At this point in his career, deGrom is almost exclusively a two-pitch thrower with the slider and the fastball. The pitches make up over 80% of his arsenal, and matchups aren't going to dictate him going away from them.
In other words, these are his pitches now, see if you can hit him. The problem in this head-to-head matchup is Judge has been tremendous against both pitches this season.
We know very well how good a fastball hitter Judge is, but what has partly been responsible for his ascension this year (hard to believe after the numbers last season) is how well he's hit the slider.
His hard-hit rate against the slider leads all New York Yankees and is well above the average in the Majors. In addition to that, he's batted almost .400 against it this season.
Rangers vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases
Rangers first five -0.5
I'm pairing the Texas Rangers' first five-inning spread with our best bet for this same-game parlay. We're getting the benefit of a non-correlated price point, and much of my handicap yesterday applies here.
Outside of Judge and Paul Goldschmidt, the Yankees struggle against the slider, a key pitch for deGrom. I suspect he can get through much of this lineup with minimum fuss, and I hope the Rangers can scratch a few runs against a good but exploitable pitcher, Ryan Yarbrough.
Rangers vs Yankees odds
Rangers vs Yankees live odds
Rangers vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Texas -105 | New York -115
- Run line: Texas +1.5 (-200) | New York -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Rangers vs Yankees trend
The Texas Rangers have hit the game total Under in 33 of their last 49 games (+16.35 Units / 30% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Yankees.
How to watch Rangers vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, New York, NY |
| Date | Wednesday, 5-21-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | Amazon Prime Video |
| Rangers starting pitcher | Jacob deGrom (4-1, 2.29 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Ryan Yarbrough (1-0, 3.70 ERA) |
Rangers vs Yankees latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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