The third installment of this four-game series gets underway Saturday evening with the AL Central’s Minnesota Twins hosting the AL West’s Texas Rangers.
Minnesota won each of the first two matchups of this series by a combined score of 19-7.
Will the Twins take care of business once again, or can the Rangers secure a bounce-back win in this game? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Rangers vs. Twins on Saturday, August 26.
Rangers vs Twins odds
Rangers vs Twins predictions
Right-hander Max Scherzer takes the mound for the Texas Rangers, and he should be a good candidate to back. Through 23 starts this season, the future Hall-of-Famer is 12-5 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
If those surface-level stats don’t sell you, then his underlying metrics likely will. Currently, Scherzer ranks in the 64th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, hard-hit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG.
He also ranks in the 69th percentile or higher in K%, whiff% and chase rate. This is the avenue in which we’re going to back Scherzer in this game.
Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 7.5 via DraftKings, a total he has surpassed in nine of his past 16 starts. This strikeout success is likely to continue against the Minnesota Twins.
Despite holding first-place in the weak AL Central, the Twins’ hitting has held them back this season as they rank in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, and OPS. They also struggle to avoid strikeouts, ranking last in the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching.
Looking at Saturday’s projected starting lineup, all nine hitters possess a K% north of 21% this year. With all due respect, that is an atrocious statistic to own.
These strikeout woes are likely to continue against Scherzer. Through 27 career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Minnesota lineup possesses a fade-worthy 40.7 K% and 36.5 whiff%.
My best bet: Max Scherzer Over 7.5 strikeouts (-150)
Rangers vs Twins same-game parlay
Max Scherzer Over 8.5 strikeouts
Under 7.5
Rangers ML
We already covered the first leg in the best bet section above, now let’s look at the other two.
While Scherzer should be a good candidate to back, right-hander Joe Ryan should also put together a strong performance for the Twins. Through 22 starts this season, Ryan is 9-8 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
Similar to Scherzer, Ryan’s underlying metrics are much stronger than his surface-level stats. Currently, the right-hander ranks in the 61st percentile or higher in xERA/xwOBA, xBA and xSLG.
However, even if Ryan limits the damage, he will have his hands full considering that Texas ranks higher than Minnesota in every hitting category across the board. Finally, there have been eight or fewer total runs scored in 16 of the Rangers’ past 25 games.
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Rangers vs Twins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Rangers opened as a –116 favorite and remain at that number at the time of writing. This line is likely to move in Texas’ favor just because of Scherzer, but the low number makes sense due to Ryan’s strong underlying metrics.
That brings us to the total, which opened at eight and has stayed at that number. This low total makes sense in a Scherzer vs Ryan matchup, and Minnesota’s poor hitting should counteract Texas’ powerhouse lineup.
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Trend to know
Scherzer has collected at least eight strikeouts in nine of his past 16 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Twins
Rangers vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Saturday, August 26, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Starting pitchers
Max Scherzer (12-5, 3.77 ERA): Scherzer certainly needs no introduction, but here are some numbers to sell you more on the future Hall-of-Famer anyways. Not only do his underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is likely over the final stretch of the campaign, but Scherzer is also 9-1 with a 2.97 ERA over his past 12 starts against Minnesota.
Joe Ryan (9-8, 4.43 ERA): Ryan’s surface-level stats do not tell his whole story this season. Not only are his underlying metrics much stronger, but a few outlier outings weigh down these figures. With that said, he will certainly have his hands full against the second-best lineup in baseball on Saturday evening.
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