The MLB season is in full swing and with it, all the betting markets that we’ve come to love/hate. This article will try to find some of MLB’s best props and side bets for the day and does all the heavy lifting so you don’t have to. If there’s a line on it, we’ll look into it.
Today, we’re backing the best pitcher in the NL not named deGrom, finding a hot bat that nobody is talking about and looking to cash in on MLB’s crackdown of foreign substances.
Check out our favorite MLB free prop bets and predictions for Saturday, June 12, 2021.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Corbin Burnes to record win (-130)
Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes has the second-best odds to capture the NL’s Cy Young awards +550. Beating Jacob deGrom will not be easy and may require an injury, but a flier on the Brewers’ starter is warranted considering what he has been doing to opposing batters this season.
Burnes has the NL’s second-best WAR at 3.1, compared to deGrom’s 3.2, but has a lower BB and HR percentage than the Mets’ starter. He also has a BABIP 60 points higher than deGrom, which could indicate that the Milwaukee pitcher could be even better going forward. His 14.26 K/9 is simply ridiculous and on Saturday afternoon, Burnes gets to unleash his 80-grade stuff on the last-place Pittsburgh Pirates and their NL-ranked 14th-best wRC+ offense.
The Pirates don’t strike out a ton — ranking 12th in the NL in K percentage — but they do have the league’s worst SLG percentage at .347, which is 24 points worse than the next-worst team. The swashbucklers managed just four hits off yesterday's starter in Brandon Woodruff and Burnes is coming off a career-high 13 strikeout game Sunday versus the Diamondbacks.
The Brewers have been a force, having won 14 of their last 18 games, and are big home favorites on Saturday. Burnes has only picked up the win once in his last six starts but the talent is too good for this trend to continue. The right-hander has allowed more than two runs just once over his last five starts and has totaled 36 punchouts over that stretch. The light-hitting Pirates don’t stand a chance.
Jonathan Schoop Over 0.5 home runs .5u (+550)
Over the last two weeks, there is only one hitter better than Detroit’s Jonathan Schoop in Yahoo standard scoring. The Tigers’ No. 3 hitter is 19 for 45 over the last 14 days and is sporting an other-worldly 1.402 OPS with six home runs. Cedric Mullins and Patrick Wisdom may be the talk of the league, but the veteran infielder is worth some serious prop considerations.
Not only has Schoop been crushing opposing pitching of late, but he has also had success against Chicago’s Saturday starter in Dylan Cease. The Detroit batter has seen the White Sox’s starter 13 times over his career and is hitting a robust .385 which includes a pair of four-baggers.
Paying +550 to leave the yard on Saturday, we feel the odds are slightly in our favor considering he has the ninth-best HR odds on the board. Taking a hot bat who has a proven track record against his Saturday opponent has us value hunting for long balls and we're willing to drop a half-unit on it for a +2.75u return.
Texas Rangers team total Over 2.5 (-121)
Spin rates are down and the reigning NL Cy Young winner is mired in his worst three-game stretch in some time. Coincidentally, since the grip-enhancement talk has taken over MLB, the metric-focused heel has allowed nine runs over his last three starts and hasn’t made it into the seventh inning — a feat for most pitchers but a common occurrence for the Driveline hurler.
Over those three starts, Bauer has a K/BB ratio of 15/9 and has surrendered a total of five long balls. Saturday’s opponent, the Texas Rangers, don’t have a Top-10 AL offense, but that has been factored into the team total line which sits at just 2.5. Coming off a one-run performance yesterday may also be helping us get a better price here.
Joey Gallo and Adolis Garcia lead the Rangers in offense and have a combined 27 home runs between them, so there is some pop in the middle of this Texas lineup that will be looking to avenge a 12-1 loss from last night. With Bauer’s increase in walks and homers for some unknown reason, it wouldn’t surprise us if the middle of this Texas lineup did some damage against a pitcher who has allowed over two runs in each of his last two starts.
MLB betting card for June 12
- Corbin Burnes to record win (-130)
- Jonathan Schoop Over 0.5 home runs .5u (+550)
- Texas Rangers team total Over 2.5 (-121)
Picks made on 6/12/2021 at 7:55 a.m. ET
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