Today’s MLB Prop Picks: Scherzer Locks Down Subway Series for Mets

Today's baseball slate is littered with afternoon games, so we've got great chances at MLB betting value all day long. Our player props for Wednesday include a pair of starters who are reliable — for different reasons — and the red-hot Jays.

Last Updated: Jul 27, 2022 1:04 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Max Scherzer New York Mets MLB
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It’s a classic getaway day on the diamond with nine of today’s 14 MLB games being matinee matchups, and that means player props to bet on all day long.

Today, we highlight one of baseball betting’s favorite fades as Patrick Corbin toes the rubber against the Dodgers, highlight which Blue Jays player to back during this white-hot stretch, and focus in on a Max Scherzer prop in tonight’s epic Subway Series matchup against the Yankees.

Here are our best MLB player props for Wednesday, July 27.

MLB props for July 27

Picks made on 7/27/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Today’s best MLB prop bets

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Flat Patrick 

After a brief reprieve in which Patrick Corbin put together consecutive solid starts, the Washington Nationals' starter has reverted to the struggling southpaw that we love to fade. That will be the case when he takes the ball this afternoon against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Corbin’s good two-game stretch first saw him first throw eight innings of one-run, five-hit ball with 12 strikeouts, followed by one run on eight hits while striking out four over seven innings. Here’s the caveat: Those games were against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins.

Since then, Corbin has been back to his old self, getting knocked around and giving up 10 earned runs on 17 hits over 10 innings against the Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks, ballooning his expected ERA to 5.61 and his opponent-expected batting average to .288.

Now, he has to deal with one of the best lineups in baseball and one that is heating up with the summer months.

The Dodgers rank fifth in batting average, and second in OPS and wRC+ for the month of July. Against left-handers this season, they're 11th in batting average, eighth in OPS, and sixth in wRC+.

Corbin's strikeouts are up over his last five starts, as he's recorded at least seven in three of his last five starts. That has been driving up his pitch count, resulting in shorter outings. 

Corbin has stayed Under 16.5 outs recorded in more than half his starts this season, including each of the last two. This matchup against the Dodgers is set up for him to make it three in a row.

Patrick Corbin Prop: Under 16.5 outs recorded (-105)

Waining arm 

The Toronto Blue Jays' onslaught out of the All-Star break continued last night, as they blasted the St. Louis Cardinals for 10 runs on the way to their seventh consecutive win. 

The Jays have now plated a ridiculous 50 runs in their first four games since coming out of the break and it seems like everyone is hitting at the moment. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and even Matt Chapman are heating up.

So, where is the best value to back this lineup in tonight’s game against Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals? That’s got to be Teoscar Hernandez.

An early-season oblique injury really stunted the Blue Jays outfielder's performance out of the gate. But, Hernandez was heating up prior to the All-Star break, and he has come out the other side blasting baseballs and looking like the guy who won back-to-back Silver Slugger awards each of the last two seasons. 

Hernandez is now 8-for-15 with three extra-base hits, going Over 1.5 total bases in all four games post-All-Star break. 

Tonight, he’ll dig into the box against Wainwright, who is finally starting to show his age. The right-hander is having a sub-par season, pitching to an xERA of 4.48 and giving up an xBA of .263 while not striking out a ton of batters, at just seven per nine innings.

Look for Hernandez to take advantage of this matchup and cash this bet for us for the second day in a row.

Teoscar Hernandez Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+111)

Scher thing

Max Scherzer vs. the best team in baseball. Everyone is going to have their eyes (and wagers) on this Subway Series matchup between the New York Yankees and the New York Mets. So, what is the best player prop in this big game?

For me, it’s Scherzer’s outs recorded prop at plus money. While the Yankees have the best lineup in baseball, Scherzer has proven to be matchup-proof over the course of his career — and this season. 

The 38-year-old future Hall of Famer is having yet another great season. Mad Max is pitching to a 2.86 xERA while limiting opponents to a .201 xBA, and is striking out an awesome 11.8 batters per nine innings. He is also averaging 6.25 innings per start this season.

Then, there is this matchup with the Yankees. Obviously, this is one of the best teams and lineups in baseball, but it sure seems like Aaron Judge is having to shoulder a bunch of the load lately.

Excluding Aaron Judge's production, the Yankees are hitting .230 as a team with just five home runs since coming out of the All-Star break. Additionally, Giancarlo Stanton just landed on the IL.

So, if Scherzer can win the battle with Judge (and he can, with Judge ranking in the 25th percentile in strikeout rate), he can really increase his chances of mowing through this lineup and pitching deep into the game.

Max Scherzer Prop: Over 18.5 outs recorded (+105)

MLB parlay

Did you know that if you played today’s MLB props as a parlay, you could win $74.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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