Guardians vs Red Sox Picks and Predictions: Back Cleveland Against Freefalling BoSox

The Red Sox may be favored in tonight's tilt against the Guardians, but our MLB betting picks and predictions break down why there's once again no reason to trust them.

Last Updated: Jul 27, 2022 3:29 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Jose Ramirez Cleveland Guardians MLB
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The Boston Red Sox are now in last place in the AL East standings. Tuesday’s loss to the Cleveland Guardians dropped Boston a half-game behind the Baltimore Orioles in the division.

The Sox have won just two of their last 12 games and there is negative energy surrounding the team that they will need to shake off soon to avoid a lost season.

Will Boston get back on track Wednesday, or will the freefall continue? Read our MLB picks and predictions for Guardians vs. Red Sox to find out.

Guardians vs Red Sox odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Red Sox opened -127 at home. The line currently resides between -127 and -135 depending on the book. The total opened at 9 but has been bet down to 8.5 across all books.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Guardians vs Red Sox predictions

Picks made on 7/27/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Guardians vs Red Sox game info

Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Date: Wednesday, July 27, 2022
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports, NESN

Guardians vs Red Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Cal Quantrill (7-5, 3.75 ERA): After splitting time between the bullpen and the rotation a year ago, Quantrill has found success as a full-time starter in 2022. However, his 4.60 xERA indicates that his 3.75 actual ERA may be in for some regression, and his 4.41 FIP also isn’t very encouraging. He pitches to contact with only a 15.1% strikeout rate, one of the lowest you will see for a starting pitcher in today’s game.

Nathan Eovaldi (4-3, 4.30 ERA): The most concerning part about Eovaldi’s profile is his 7.9% barrel rate. He’s allowing hitters to make too much hard contact, hence the 4.39 xERA and 4.73 FIP. He’s tried to manage this with a lot of strikeouts (24.9% strikeout rate) and very few walks (4.4% walk rate). He’ll look to regain the form that saw him keep a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the last two seasons. 


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Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Boston is 3-13 in its last 16 games against right-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Red Sox

Guardians vs Red Sox picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

There’s no way I’m playing the Red Sox as a favorite while they’re in the midst of a freefall. They’ve now reached the bottom of the AL East standings after going just 2-10 in their last 12 games. 

The general feeling in the clubhouse cannot be positive at this time. Alex Cora has his work cut out for him to keep his team motivated and avoid bottoming out any further. They still have a .500 record (49-49) and can make the playoffs by flipping a switch, but I’m not holding my breath until they give me a darn good reason. 

Since returning from the All-Star break, the Red Sox’s bats have been cold. Over the last week, they rank 22nd in OPS, 22nd in wOBA, and 23rd in wRC+.

Cleveland has been swinging the sticks better since returning from break, ranking eighth in OPS, ninth in wOBA, and ninth in wRC+.

I don’t give a substantial starting pitching edge to either team. Quantrill’s 4.60 xERA and 4.41 FIP are in line with Eovoladi’s numbers (4.39 xERA, 4.73 FIP). Eovaldi is giving up way too much hard contact (7.9% barrel rate) for me to trust him at this point in time.

That’s a theme in this handicap. I don’t trust Eovaldi. I don’t trust this ice-cold Boston lineup. I don’t trust the Red Sox in general as they’re in the middle of a freefall. Give me Cleveland.

Prediction: Guardians moneyline (+116 at WynnBET)

Over/Under analysis

I’m not a huge believer in either pitcher. Quantrill’s surface-level stats appear fine, but I can’t trust his profile. He hardly strikes out batters and his 4.60 xERA indicates that some regression is incoming. Boston’s bats have been ice cold, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they plated a few runs on Wednesday.

Eovaldi, meanwhile, has a 7.9% barrel rate that is well above what you’d typically like to see from a pitcher. Cleveland ranks within the Top 10 of most hitting metrics since returning from the All-Star break, so they’re in fine form. Boston isn’t far removed from allowing 55 runs in the span of three games, so I don’t trust them to limit the damage at this point.

The Over is 6-1-1 in the Guardians’ last eight overall and 4-0-1 in their last five games following a win. 

As for the Red Sox, the Over is 7-2 in their last nine games overall, 9-3 in their last 12 games against a right-handed starter, and 22-8 in their last 30 against a team with a winning record. 

Wouldn’t you know it — the Over is also trending when these two teams meet at Fenway, going 9-3-2 in the last 14 meetings in Boston. I’ll back it once again.

Prediction: Over 8.5 (-110 at Caesars)

Best bet

I’ll be fading Boston for my best bet on Wednesday.

The Red Sox are in disarray, going just 2-10 over their last 12 games. They haven’t been hitting at the plate (23rd in wRC+ since returning from break) and they’ve been allowing too many runs.

The feeling in the clubhouse isn’t a good one, to say the least, and I’m not liking what I’ve been hearing in the press conferences.

With Trevor Story, Rafael Devers, and Enrique Hernandez all on the shelf, this team is far from full strength — and they’re playing like it.

Until Boston shows signs of righting the ship, I have to go the other way. I’m getting underdog money on Cleveland in this matchup and I’ll take it as my best bet. 

Pick: Guardians moneyline (+116 at WynnBET)

MLB parlays

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