Twins vs Brewers Picks and Predictions: Handicapping This One-Sided Pitching Matchup

With Milwaukee sending out Cy Young candidate Corbin Burnes and the Twins countering with Chris Archer — an average-at-best hurler who's yet to reach the sixth inning in any start this year — our MLB betting picks are all over Milwaukee at home.

Last Updated: Jul 27, 2022 9:38 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Corbin Burnes Milwaukee Brewers MLB
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A pair of division-leading clubs will meet again tonight as the Milwaukee Brewers host the Minnesota Twins after the home side took the opener last night with a ninth-inning walk-off.

Reigning NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes will get the ball tonight, but at -200, is there still some value on one of the best arms in baseball?

Will his counterpart, Chris Archer be able to go deep despite a hip injury prior to the All-Star break? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Twins vs. Brewers. 

Twins vs Brewers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Brewers opened as -192 moneyline favorites and have since moved to -200 on the overnight line. The total opened at 8 and is tilting to the Under. Milwaukee closed as a pick 'em last night thanks to a disadvantage in the starting pitching.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Twins vs Brewers predictions

Picks made on 7/27/2022 at 8:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Twins vs Brewers game info

Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
Date: Wednesday, July 27, 2022
First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
TV: YouTube

Twins vs Brewers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Chris Archer (2-4, 3.41 ERA): The right-hander has made 16 starts on the season but has just 66 total innings pitched. He's seen just 10 total batters the third time through the order this year. He’s made one start since coming off the 15-day IL on July 17 and has thrown just 4 2-3 innings since the end of June. Archer owns a very decent 1.69 ERA in the first inning but it gets uglier the longer it goes, culminating in a 13.50 ERA in the fifth inning.

Corbin Burnes (7-4, 2.20 ERA): Burnes is currently the No. 2 betting favorite for the Cy Young in the National League behind Miami’s Sandy Alcantara. He's coming off an abbreviated five-inning performance before the All-Star break but still finished that game with a 33% called strikes and whiff rate. Burnes’ top three pitches — his cutter, curveball, and slider — have been elite again this season and the reigning Cy Young winner is holding opposing batters to under .200 on all three offerings  

Weather

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Key injuries

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Betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Brewers

Twins vs Brewers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Twins might be leading the American League Central but the books are not very high on them to finish on top. Minnesota sits 2.5 games up on the Guardians and three games up on the White Sox but the Twins are a slight +125 favorite to win the division with the White Sox at +130. 

There are a lot of holes in the Twins’ game and their starting pitching issues will be on display tonight. Chris Archer will get the nod tonight but the right-hander has not recorded an out in the sixth inning this season which spans over 17 starts and he's also failed to record 15 outs in 14 of those turns. 

Archer’s quick outings strain this Minnesota bullpen that ranks as the worst unit in the AL, per FanGraphs. The Twins’ pen used five of their top relievers last night and over those 4 2-3 innings of work, gave up four hits, four walks, and two runs. The advantage the Brewers have in the later innings is worth 20 to 30 points in my assessment and the edge in starting pitching is even bigger.

Corbin Burnes has some work to capture his second straight NL Cy Young award as Sandy Alcantara is the betting favorite, but the Milwaukee right-hander has been elite again this season and actually has a huge advantage vs. this Minnesota offense.

The Twins are a Top-5 team in AVG and rely on stringing hits together which is bad news as Burnes and his 5.9 hits per nine innings is one of the best hit-suppressing pitchers in baseball.

If the Twins need to create some runs on the bases, they are at an even bigger disadvantage as they have the worst BsR (Base Runs) rating in baseball which measures how a team creates runs on base-running metrics. 

One of Minnesota’s heaviest sticks, Miguel Sano, just returned from a knee meniscus surgery and batted ninth yesterday and only made two plate appearances. He's not back to full speed and is at risk to get pinch hit again. 

With THE BAT projecting Archer to throw under 60 pitches and turn things over to this weak bullpen, I have this game priced at closer to -215 or -220 for the home side. Burnes closed as a -305 home favorite versus the Rockies in his last outing and -185 at home versus the Blue Jays (Yusei Kikuchi) in late June.

It’s a steep price to pay but we’re projecting this -200 moneyline to be at least 15 points short. BetMGM is the slowest book to move this line and still hanging -190 at the time of writing. 

PredictionBrewers moneyline (-190 at BetMGM)

Over/Under analysis

The Twins have seen a parade of average to below-average starters over the last 30 days with Shane Bieber being the only name that stands out.

Since the All-Star break, Minnesota has seen Ethan Smalls, Michael Pineda, and Rony Garcia. The jump from that trio to Burnes is a massive gap. Burnes is 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA over his last seven starts, including four games vs. Top-10 offenses in Toronto, San Francisco, St. Louis, and the Mets. 

Thanks to the moneyline price being a little longer than my projection for the Brewers, we're getting a decent price on the Minnesota team total Under which sits at 3.5 (-140 at DraftKings). The handoff from Burnes to this elite bullpen should be easy as well as Burnes averages over 18 outs per home start. With closer Josh Hader settling things down over the ASB, if Minnesota has to see Burnes, Brad Boxberger/Devin Williams, and Hader in that order, stringing hits together is going to be tough for the visitors. 

Jandel Gustave, Boxberger, Williams, and Hader went four innings yesterday and allowed just a single hit, one walk, and zero runs while striking out three. They also have one of the best defenses in baseball behind them.

The Twins have not seen any elite arms over the last 30 days and Burnes could easily spin a gem and hand things over to some of the best bullpen arms in baseball.   

PredictionTwins team total Under 3.5 (-140 at DraftKings)

Best bet

Archer spent 15 days on the IL (hip) and has made just one start since his return (10 days ago). In that start, the Minnesota right-hander threw just 68 pitches (20 batters) and although he struck out five in the outing, it's because of those punchouts we’re getting a very good price on Archer’s total strikeout prop today.

Archer’s total strikeouts sit at 3.5 but is also paying +108 which implies roughly 4.00 strikeouts. THE BAT has him projected for just 2.91 strikeouts thanks to a low projected pitch count of 58. He’ll have a hitter’s umpire behind the plate in Larry Vanover and his projected catcher, Caleb Hamilton, is an average pitch framer, per THE BAT.

Archer has topped three strikeouts just three times over his last 11 starts and has never topped five innings this season. With his hip tightness not that far behind him and the Twins looking for a playoff berth, the Twins could take things cautiously with Archer — especially since he hasn’t seen live batters in over 10 days and has thrown just 4 2-3 innings since the end of June. 

Milwaukee also has a Top-5 walk rate versus right-handed pitching and could certainly drive up Archer’s pitch count as the starter struggles with command and has 31 walks over 66 innings. 

Chris Archer Prop: Under 3.5 strikeouts (+108)

MLB parlays

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