Ready to make the most of tonight’s MLB action? Our computer models have run the numbers and identified the top value plays for Tuesday, August 6, each earning Covers’ coveted 5-star expected value rating. These aren’t just predictions; they’re data-driven opportunities designed to help you knock it out of the park and boost your bankroll.
Check out our MLB player props for even more selections ahead of today's action.
MLB computer picks for August 6
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Twins vs  Tigers |
Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+120) |
 Giants vs  Pirates |
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+190) |
 Orioles vs  Phillies |
Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+160) |
 A's vs  Nationals |
James Wood Over 1.5 Total Bases (+155) |
 Guardians vs  Mets |
Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+220) |
 Brewers vs  Braves |
Marcell Ozuna Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+185) |
 Reds vs  Cubs |
Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+180) |
 Yankees vs  Rangers |
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115) |
 Blue Jays vs  Rockies |
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 Total RBIs (-120) |
 Rays vs  Angels |
Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-135) |
 Astros vs  Marlins |
Graham Pauley Over 0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-135) |
 Padres vs  Diamondbacks |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+165) |
 Cardinals vs  Dodgers |
Nolan Gorman Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+250) |
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers
Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+120)
Projection: 2 (Over)
When estimating his home run skill, Ryan Jeffers ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system. Comerica Park has the third-shortest average fence height among all parks. The weather report calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the fourth-highest level of all games on the slate today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Tigers infield defense profiles as the weakest out of all the teams today.
San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection: 0.6 (Over)
Rafael Devers ranks in the 97th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the sixth-highest altitude among all parks, which tends to lead to more offense. The Pittsburgh Pirates have just one same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Devers can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Pittsburgh's outfield defense grades out as the weakest among every team in action today.
Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies
Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection: 1.7 (Over)
Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 17th-best hitter in the game. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for long-balls. Among all the teams today, the second-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies. In the past week, Henderson's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.4-mph over the course of the season to 104.4-mph lately.
Athletics vs Washington Nationals
James Wood Over 1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection: 1.8 (Over)
When it comes to his BABIP talent, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game. Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball hitters like Wood tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jeffrey Springs. Among all the teams in action today, the worst outfield defense is that of the Athletics.
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets
Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection: 0.5 (Over)
Francisco Lindor ranks in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Citi Field's centerfield fences are the shallowest in all of MLB. Lindor's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, going from 15.1% on the season to 30% in the last 14 days.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves
Marcell Ozuna Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
Projection: 0.7 (Over)
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 95th percentile. Truist Park profiles as the #4 ballpark in the league for righty BABIP. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the third-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Ozuna will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Quintana in today's game.
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs
Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection: 0.6 (Over)
Kyle Tucker ranks as the eighth-best hitter in MLB. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation often leads to better offense. Tucker will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. His ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, rising from 42.9% on the season to 75% in the last seven days.
New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection: 2 (Over)
Aaron Judge projects as the best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). On average, the fence height at Globe Life Field is the seventh-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums. Judge's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (22.3°) is considerably higher than his 19.3° mark last year. Judge's 26.6% Barrel% (an advanced stat to measure power) is in the 100th percentile this year.
Toronto Blue Jays vs Colorado Rockies
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 Total RBIs (-120)
Projection: 1.2 (Over)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ranks as the best batter in Major League Baseball as it relates to his batting average talent. Coors Field grades out as the #1 stadium in the game for right-handed batting average and it sits at the highest altitude in the league. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 96°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels
Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-135)
Projection: 2.7 (Over)
Junior Caminero ranks in the 89th percentile when assessing his home run skill. The fence height at Angel Stadium is the second-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the third-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 87°. Hitting from the opposite that Tyler Anderson throws from, Junior Caminero will have an edge in today's game.
San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection: 0.7 (Over)
Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the ninth-best batter in baseball. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the second-best ballpark in the majors for RHB batting average. Chase Field sits at the second-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the fourth-most favorable for hitting of the day.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Nolan Gorman Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
Projection: 0.6 (Over)
When estimating his home run skill, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 97th percentile. Dodger Stadium ranks as the #1 ballpark in baseball for lefty home runs. Among all stadiums, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height. The weather report calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the second-highest level on the schedule today at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). In the last week, Nolan Gorman's 83.3% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 48.1%.
Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins
Graham Pauley Over 0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-135)
Projection 1.4 (Over)
Batting from the opposite that Spencer Arrighetti throws from, Graham Pauley will have an advantage in today's game. Pauley's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls recently (23.8° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is significantly higher than his 12.1° seasonal angle.
