Looking to cash in on the diamond tonight? Our MLB computer models have crunched the numbers and spit out the juiciest plays for Tuesday, August 5, complete with Covers’ highest 5-star expected value ratings. These aren’t just picks, they’re data-backed moneymakers ready to help you swing for the fences and fatten your bankroll.
Check out our MLB player props for even more selections ahead of today's action.
MLB computer picks for August 5
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Twins vs  Tigers |
Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+135) |
 Giants vs  Pirates |
Matt Chapman Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+100) |
 Orioles vs  Phillies |
Max Kepler Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+185) |
 A's vs  Nationals |
James Wood Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+175) |
 Guardians vs  Mets |
Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+195) |
 Royals vs  Red Sox |
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145) |
 Brewers vs  Braves |
Christian Yelich Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+210) |
 Reds vs  Cubs |
Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+150) |
 Yankees vs  Rangers |
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-125) |
 Blue Jays vs  Rockies |
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+110) |
 Rays vs  Angels |
Taylor Ward Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+115) |
 White Sox vs  Mariners |
Andrew Benintendi Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+135) |
 Padres vs  Diamondbacks |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115) |
 Cardinals vs  Dodgers |
Mookie Betts Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+155) |
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers
Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+135)
Projection: 1.9 (Over)
When estimating his overall offensive talent, Trevor Larnach ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Larnach is penciled in fifth on the lineup card in this game. Comerica Park has the third-lowest average fence height. The weather report calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the second-highest level of the day at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Matt Chapman Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+100)
Projection: 2.2 (Over)
Matt Chapman ranks as the majors' 17th-best home run batter. Chapman is projected to bat fourth on the lineup card in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the third-highest temperatures on the slate today at 82°.
The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the second-weakest among every team on the slate today. Pittsburgh's third-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Chapman, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies
Max Kepler Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
Projection: 0.6 (Over)
HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all parks. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the fourth-highest level of the day at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Max Kepler will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all his stats. Kepler has made significant strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 11.8% seasonal rate to 25% in the past week.
Athletics vs Washington Nationals
James Wood Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection: 0.7 (Over)
James Wood ranks as the best hitter in the league when assessing his BABIP ability. Batting from the opposite that Luis Severino throws from, Wood will have an edge in today's matchup. Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Wood will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all his stats.
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets
Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection: 0.7 (Over)
When assessing his overall offensive skill, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.4-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for hitters. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the plate, Lindor will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side against Logan Allen in this game. Lindor pulls many of his flyballs (35.9% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's fourth-shallowest LF fences in today's game.
Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection: 1.8 (Over)
Bobby Witt Jr. ranks as the 10th-best batter in the majors. Witt. is penciled in second in the lineup in this game. The leading projection system ranks Fenway Park as the third-best stadium in the league for run-scoring. Witt will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Garrett Crochet in today's game.
Witt has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's third-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves
Christian Yelich Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection: 0.6 (Over)
When estimating his BABIP skill, Christian Yelich is projected as the ninth-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system. The #4 park in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to lefties is Truist Park. Built 981 feet above sea level, it has the third-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. Yelich has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 99.1-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 90.5-mph EV.
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs
Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
Projection: 0.7 (Over)
Seiya Suzuki projects as the 18th-best hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Suzuki is projected to bat third in the batting order in this game. Among all parks, Wrigley Field's LF dimensions are the sixth-shallowest. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense projects as the fourth-worst among every team today.
New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-125)
Projection: 2.4 (Over)
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best hitter in baseball. Globe Life Field has the seventh-shortest average fence height in the league. Batters like Judge tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Nathan Eovaldi. The Texas Rangers infield defense projects as the fouth-weakest among every team in action today.
Toronto Blue Jays vs Colorado Rockies
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+110)
Projection: 1.1 (Over)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in the league when estimating his batting average talent. Coors Field projects as the #1 park in the majors for run-scoring. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all major league stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level on the slate at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels
Taylor Ward Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+115)
Projection: 2 (Over)
Taylor Ward is in the 93rd percentile when assessing overall offensive ability. Angel Stadium has the second-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball. As far as temperature and humidity go, the fourth-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Ward will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup.
Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners
Andrew Benintendi Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+135)
Projection: 1.8 (Over)
Andrew Benintendi is in the 79th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. T-Mobile Park has the third-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for home runs. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.3-mph in this contest, the second-best of the day for bats. Benintendi will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bryan Woo in today's matchup... and moreover, Woo has a large platoon split.
San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115)
Projection: 2.3 (Over)
Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the ninth-best batter in the game. The #2 venue in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed batters is Chase Field. Chase Field sits at the second-highest elevation among all major league stadiums. High elevation often leads to better offense. The weather forecast forecasts the third-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Mookie Betts Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection: 0.7 (Over)
Mookie Betts is in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. The #1 field in baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed batters is Dodger Stadium. Dodger Stadium has the shortest fence height (on average) in MLB. Betts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's ninth-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins
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