The bad news is it’s Monday. The good news is we have a jammed-pack slate of MLB action, and with that comes an excellent opportunity for value in the MLB player props markets.
I’ve sifted through the MLB odds to find some of the best value in the prop market with three plays. As always, be ready to line shop for the best available numbers you can find.
Here are my free MLB picks for player props on Monday, April 15.
MLB props for April 15
- Steer Over 0.5 SB (+500 at bet365)
- Jeffers Over 1.5 TB (+100 at FanDuel)
- Glasnow Under 9.5 Ks (-180 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 4/15 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Steal for Steer
Mariners starter George Kirby has gotten off to a rough start, beginning the year with an ERA of over eight. Underlying numbers suggest some positive regression soon, but there is value to take advantage of in the interim.
Spencer Steer odds are good to target against Kirby, as he has a positive run value against his three primary pitches. There are no historical numbers for Steer against Kirby to go by, but everything on paper suggests Steer should be able to get on base at least once against him.
Once there, the Cincinnati Reds have been the most aggressive team in baseball on the basepaths to start the season. Steer has 18 stolen bases over the past two years, and slowing down runners has been a career-long issue for Kirby.
Spencer Steer prop: Over 0.5 stolen bases (+500 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Riding with Ryan
I'm happily going to wager on Ryan Jeffers' odds against Cole Irvin today.
The Baltimore lefty has been flat-out bad this season, primarily, as you’d like to slice it. Irvin will enter this game in the Bottom 20% of mostly any metric, most notably in the fourth percentile in barrel rate and the Bottom 19 percentile in the expected batting average.
Jeffers should be able to exploit this in a big way. The Twins catcher had a Top 25 isolated power rate against left-handed pitchers last season, and there’s something to like even better in this matchup: He had the highest batting average against the curveball previous season, which is the most preferred pitch for Irvin.
Ryan Jeffers prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #3: Shattered Glasnow
These Tyler Glasnow odds are making me drink the juice here, but it is worth it against my projection of -195.
You can say many things about the Washington Nationals over the past few years, but one of the things you can’t say is that they strike out a lot.
They’ll enter this matchup with the 10th-highest strikeout rate in the majors, and even that is high against what we’ve seen historically. Over the last two seasons, the Nats have finished in the Bottom 5 in the MLB in strikeouts per game.
I’m backing that to reveal itself here. Glasnow is just coming off an incredible 14-strikeout performance against the Minnesota Twins, but there’s no reason to think he won't come back to reality here.
Tyler Glasnow prop: Under 9.5 strikeouts (-180 at DraftKings)
Not intended for use in MA.
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