The Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies will wrap up their three-game set with a mid-week matinee on Thursday as the visitors look for the sweep.
Philadelphia’s come-from-behind 5-2 win in extra innings last night sealed the team’s first road series since September 2019 and now the Phillies have a chance to sweep a road series for the first time since April 2018.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals for Thursday, May 13 (1:05 p.m. EST).
Phillies vs Nationals game info
• Location: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.
• Date: Wednesday, May 13, 2021
• Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
• TV: MLB Network
Phillies vs Nationals odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonPhiladelphia landed on DraftKings' odds board as a -115 favorite and is down to -110, with Washington -105 at 12:15 p.m. ET. Still, moneyline ticket count and cash are running 2/1 on the Phillies. The total dipped from 8.5 to 8, with 52 percent of tickets/56 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gamePhillies vs Nationals betting preview
Starting pitchers
Zach Eflin (2-1, 3.38 ERA): Lost in the success of the Phillies rotation is the emergence of Eflin. The sixth-year pitcher has pitched at least six innings in all of his seven starts and boasts an insane 42:3 K/BB ratio. Only Walker Buehler has a better BB percentage than Eflin who has also surrendered just four long balls over his 45 innings of work. Four home runs and three walks over seven starts of six-plus innings is some magical pitching.
Patrick Corbin (1-3, 7.36 ERA): Corbin may have lowered his ERA in four-straight starts but the southpaw is still at the bottom of most NL statistical leaderboards. Only Drew Smyly is giving up more HR/9 than the Nationals pitcher. Nearly one in every three flyballs is leaving the yard (30% HR/FB ratio) as batters are continuously barrelling up Corbin who owns a bottom-10 hard-hit percentage and a bottom-three barrel percentage.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Phillies: Didi Gregorious SS (questionable), J.T. Realmuto C (questionable), Archie Bradley RP (out), Roman Quinn OF (out), Matt Joyce OF (out), Jojo Romero RP (out).
Nationals: No injuries to report.
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Phillies are 9-3 SU in the last 12 meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Nationals.
Moneyline pick
The Philadelphia Phillies aren’t known as a good road team. Heading into their three-game series versus the Washington Nationals, the Phillies hadn’t won a road series since September 2019 and were 5-11 SU as visitors this year. But a big 6-2 win on Tuesday to open the series followed by last night’s 5-2 victory has Bryce Harper and Co. singing a different tune.
The visitors are 7-2 SU in their last nine and will have a great opportunity to stack runs against one of the hardest-hit pitchers in the league in the Nationals’ Patrick Corbin.
Corbin and his well-deserved 7.36 ERA are allowing hard-hit balls on 47 percent of his balls in play. That number means even more as the lefty isn’t a strikeout pitcher, with just 20 strikeouts over 29 innings. Corbin has lowered his ERA in his last three starts but has also allowed nine runs across those 17 innings of work. He has just a single win over six turns and failed to grab a win in his two starts versus the Phillies last year on his way to a 1.54 WHIP.
The Philly offense just got back to full health with Bryce Harper and Jean Segura drawing back in, but J.T. Realmuto exited Tuesday’s game and sat out Wednesday. Missing your clean-up hitter is not ideal, but manager Joe Girardi said his catcher could be available to pinch-hit on Wednesday which bodes well for Thursday’s matinee.
The offense shouldn’t have any problems staking starter Zach Eflin some runs, but if the bats do go cold, Eflin is more than capable of keeping things tight. Washington’s lineup doesn't have much support after Trea Turner and Juan Soto at the top of the order and sit 28th in home runs hit.
Philly backers are in good hands with the right-hander as he goes deep (6.47 innings per start), doesn’t give up the long ball (0.79 HR/9), doesn’t give up free passes (four BB over 45 innings) and can get a punchout when needed (23 K over his last 19-plus innings). The scary thing is that Eflin could get even better as he carries an abnormally high BABIP at .331.
We’re banking on the Phils getting that road monkey off their back and taking the final game of the series.
PREDICTION: Philadelphia ML (-115)
Over/Under pick
If you’re into fading struggling pitchers for the Over, this is your game. Corbin is the perfect Over pitcher as he takes his whiplash style of pitching and has enough slack that he won’t get yanked early.
Only one pitcher in the NL has surrendered more long balls than Corbin, who is one shy of the lead but has done so in five fewer innings. He’s given up six taters over his last three starts and is 4-2 O/U on the season.
The Philly bats haven’t loved left-handed pitching this year but now that Harper and Segura are back after missing time, it could be a different story as Philadelphia was one of the better-hitting teams against LHP in 2020.
A big contribution to the visiting lineup is No. 8 batter, Odubel Herrera. The center fielder may be hitting just .229 on the season, but he’s 9-for-24 over the last week and was instrumental in yesterday’s win with a ninth-inning game-tying homer. Herrera is a huge piece of the offense as he can turn the order over. If everyone in this lineup gets going, it could be one of the best in baseball.
Another important angle where we love the Over is with the state of both teams’ bullpens. The Nats blew three save opportunities on the weekend against the Yankees, got hit in the first game of this series, and took the loss last night in the second game. Closer Brad Hand has blown saves in three straight appearances.
Not to be outdone, the Philadelphia bullpen has been an issue all year, as they carry the NL’s fourth-highest ERA at 4.71. The relievers are giving up nearly a full hit per inning and have the third-worst CSW (called strikes plus whiffs) percentage in all of baseball. There are some big opportunities for late runs in this game.
PREDICTION: Over 8.5 (-105)
Phillies vs Nationals betting card
- Philadelphia ML (-115)
- Over 8.5 (-105)
Picks made on 5/13/2021 at 4:25 a.m. ET
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