If you're a fan of offense, you've probably fallen asleep by the fourth inning in each of the first two games of this Yankees-Rays series.
New York won both games and is the MLB betting favorite to complete the sweep tonight, but they've been painfully low-scoring contests, as the clubs have combined for fewer runs than tonight's total alone.
Despite a weaker pitching matchup, are oddsmakers giving these offenses too much respect? Will fans of something other than "three-up, three-down" avoid having their eyes bleed for a third straight game? See what we think in our MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Rays, with first pitch set for 7:10 p.m. ET.
Yankees vs Rays game info
• Location: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
• Date: Thursday, May 13, 2021
• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: YES, BS-Sun
Yankees vs Rays odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonTwinSpires opened the Yankees -130 and quickly moved to -135, then backed up to -128, but the moneyline is up to New York -141 at 4:15 p.m. ET. That said, the Rays are nabbing 59 percent of bets and 66 percent of money, three hours before first pitch. The total dipped from 8 to 7.5, with 55 percent of tickets on the Over and 79 percent of money on the Under. "We saw some sharp money come in on Under 8," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said.
Check out the full line movement for this gameYankees vs Rays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jameson Taillon (1-2, 5.02 ERA): After not pitching since May 1, 2019, Taillon is slowly building himself back up for the Yankees. He had alternated good starts with so-so starts through his five turns but hit a few milestones in his last outing against Washington, throwing a season-high 6 1-3 innings and 99 pitches while delivering his first official quality start of the year. The 29-year-old righty has been plagued by the long ball this season, however, giving up a dinger in five of his six starts to date and seven dingers in 28 2-3 overall innings pitched.
Rich Hill (1-1, 5.17 ERA): It was a brutal start to the season for the ageless lefty, as he gave up exactly four earned runs in each of his first four outings and had an 8.82 ERA. But the 41-year-old Hill has been strong lately, giving up two runs with 10 strikeouts over six innings three starts ago, before posting back-to-back starts with zero runs allowed. Hill's big, looping curveball is working wonders for him again (.193 opponent average off the pitch) and he's tossed 11 consecutive shutout innings.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Yankees: Gleyber Torres SS (Questionable), Rougned Odor 2B (Out), Darren O'Day RP (Out), Zack Britton RP (Out).
Rays: Diego Castillo RP (Out), Kevin Keirmaier CF (Out), Francisco Mejia C (Out), Nick Anderson RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 9-2 in the Rays' last 11 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rays.
Moneyline pick
The good news for the Yankees is they've won two straight games at the Trop, a place where they were 3-11 in their last 14 prior to this set, and can go for the series sweep in tonight's matchup with the Rays.
The bad news is that the Yankees' feast or famine offense continues to be best described as "starving." New York is fourth in MLB in home runs, but currently has the seventh-worst team batting average in the majors (.221) and scores the seventh-fewest runs per game (3.94).
New York's roster features five guys hitting below .200 (plus Luke Voit, who just returned from the IL), and the club has mustered a whopping four runs in the first two games of this series—courtesy of two solo homers, a passed ball and a sac fly.
The Yankees were able to win those games thanks to masterful pitching performances from Jordan Montgomery and Gerrit Cole, but I wouldn't bank on a third straight dominant performance from Taillon. The veteran righty has been homer prone this season, giving up at least one dinger in five of his six starts, which means the Rays should be able to do better than the lone run they've scratched across the board in the past two games.
On the flip side, don't expect the Yanks to suddenly pile a bunch of runs up today either. Yes, the Bombers are better against southpaws, but soft-tossing lefty Ryan Yarbrough tossed 3 1-3 shutout innings yesterday in a bulk reliever role, and Hill comes into today's game with 11 straight scoreless frames.
New York's pitching won't be able to save its sorry offense today, so we like the home Rays to salvage a W in this series—at plus money.
PREDICTION: Rays (+115)
Over/Under pick
In case you somehow skipped over the entire section above: The Yankees offense is very, very bad right now and generally does not score runs unless it hits the ball out of the park. That's led to the Under hitting in four straight games for New York and seven straight against AL East rivals.
The Rays aren't much better, averaging just a tick over four runs per game (still below the league average), while also having a team batting average even worse than the Yanks (.217) and leading the majors with 397 strikeouts.
The total for today's game is set at 8.5, but these two teams have combined for five runs through two games. Yes, this is the weakest pitching matchup of the series but we're giving these offenses way too much credit.
We'll happily take the Under with less juice.
PREDICTION: Under 8.5 (-105)
Yankees vs Rays betting card
- Rays (+115)
- Under 8.5 (-105)
Picks made on 5/13/2021 at 9:37 a.m. ET
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