Midseason MLB Awards Futures: Our Best Bets for MVP, Cy Young & Rookie of the Year

The favorites are starting to pull away in their respective MLB awards races, but there's still some value to be found. Andrew Caley dissects each race and finds two plays worth considering in a sea of chalk.

Andrew Caley - Senior Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Andrew Caley • Senior Betting Analyst
Jul 16, 2025 • 15:05 ET • 4 min read
Aaron Judge Jasson Dominguez New York Yankees MLB
Photo By - Imagn Images. Yankees outfielders Aaron Judge and Jasson Dominguez could each hoist awards hardware at season's end.

The MLB All-Star Game has come and gone, which means we can shift our focus to the second half and the always intriguing awards markets. 

We’ve got big favorites for MVP with Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, while both Cy Youngs look like two-horse races.

Check out my midseason MLB picks and predictions for AL and NL MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year. 

2025 Midseason MLB Awards picks

AL & NL MVP picks

AL favorite: Yankees Aaron Judge (-600 at bet365)
AL pick: Judge

There will be a lot of clamoring for Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh here. The thing is, Aaron Judge is doing everything Raleigh is doing, only better. And I’d argue with less support.  

Even with his mini-slump before the All-Star break, here are some of the categories Judge leads not just the AL, but the majors in: WAR, batting average, OPS, hits, total bases, and — maybe my favorite stat — he has been intentionally walked twice as much as the next closest big leaguer. 

He is the most dangerous hitter in baseball, having a historic season. Don’t overthink this. 

NL favorite: Dodgers Shohei Ohtani (-1000 at bet365)
NL pick: Ohtani

Talk about not overthinking things. Shohei Ohtani may not be having his most dominant season in recent years, but he’s still crushing baseballs. He leads the NL in OPS, home runs, and runs scored. 

But Ohtani is such a massive favorite because he has made his long-awaited return to the mound. Just one earned run and 10 strikeouts while averaging 98 miles per hour with his fastball in his first nine innings. Simply put, he is the best player in the world on the best team in baseball. 

AL & NL Cy Young picks

AL favorite: Tigers Tarik Skubal (-190 at bet365)
AL pick: Red Sox Garrett Crochet (+250 at bet365)

This is one of the few MLB award markets that still has some value in it. Tarik Skubal is the reigning AL Cy Young winner, and he is even better this season, so he’s a deserving favorite at this point. But, Garrett Crochet is hot on his heels. 

Crochet has shone as the Boston Red Sox ace. They are neck-and-neck in so many categories, including ERA and strikeouts. It could take just a bad start or two from Skubal for Crochet to leapfrog him in the odds, particularly now that Boston is back in contention, so I’ll take the plus-money value. 

NL favorite: Phillies Zack Wheeler (-125 at bet365)
NL pick: Wheeler

My first thought was to take Paul Skenes at even money. For my money, Skenes is the best pitcher in baseball, but there were a few other factors to consider. 

For starters, Zack Wheeler has the edge in strikeouts, and like or not, that continues to be a big factor in Cy Young voting.

Second, don’t be surprised if the last-place Pittsburgh Pirates pull the throttle back on Skenes in the second half and reduce his innings to save his arm. Meanwhile, Wheeler is in the middle of a pennant race and should be throwing deep into games all season long.

AL & NL Rookie of the Year picks

AL favorite: Athletics Jacob Wilson (+110 at bet365)
AL pick: Yankees Jasson Dominguez (+3000 at bet365)

Let’s ride with one long shot in this article.

Jasson Dominguez was one of the top prospects in baseball and the pride of the New York Yankees' farm system. Unfortunately, he got off to a slow start, and some questioned whether or not hed live up to those vaunted expectations. 

However, he’s improved his batting average every month, and the Yanks may have unlocked the next level of his potential.  

Dominguez has hit leadoff in seven of the last 11 games. Over that span, he’s hitting  .348 with a .953 OPS. Hitting in front of Judge means he's getting plenty of pitches to hit, and he could be in for a big second half. 

NL favorite: Brewers Jacob Misiorowski (-210 at bet365)
NL pick: Misiorowski

Back to the chalk here. Jacob Misiorowski’s selection to the All-Star Game may have been questionable, but there is no doubt the guy has a live arm. 

Misiorowski has been electric in his first five starts with the Brewers, striking out 33 batters in 23 2/3 innings thanks to a fastball that averages a ridiculous 99.3 miles per hour. There is not as much competition in the NL rookie race, so if the young fireballer can keep up this hot start, he will cruise to this award.

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Andrew Caley
Senior Betting Analyst

When his dreams of becoming the next Steve Nash died, all Andrew "Taco" Caley wanted to do was write about sports, something he's been doing at Covers for more than a decade. A Journalism School grad from Holland College in Charlottetown, PEI, Andrew previously worked at The Chronicle Herald and Star Metro, but knew in his heart that his future lay in sports. He began at Covers as a news editor and has now done everything under the sun when it comes to content. His work has been seen on TSN, Sportsnet, VSiN, and CBS. These days Andrew's betting expertise is focused on his favorite teams; the Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He's also an avid college football fan and bettor. He can't be friends with you if you don't appreciate a Service Academy Under. You can also call him Covers Sixth Man, as he regularly steps up to guest host Before You Bet and our MLB and NCAAF release shows. The sportsbook where he does the bulk of his betting is bet365 thanks to its numerous prop betting options and competitive odds. His best advice? Find the balance between the numbers and what you see on the playing field. Then find the best price using multiple books. And don’t ask him where the nickname Taco comes from. It's not an interesting story. Seriously.<

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