Phillies vs Mets Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Today’s MLB Game

The class of the NL East, the Phillies, look to widen the gap vs. the Mets in London on Saturday afternoon. Find out why our MLB picks expect Nick Castellanos, among others, to flex their muscles vs. New York's subpar pitching staff.

Eric Rosales - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Eric Rosales • Betting Analyst
Jun 8, 2024 • 09:19 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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It’s baseball across the pond as the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets square off in the first of a 2-game set in London.

These NL East rivals are playing good ball too as the Mets are coming off a sweep of the Nationals, while the division-leading Philies swept Milwaukee and have won six of seven. It’s part of the reason they’re -155 moneyline favorites in the MLB odds.

Our free Phillies vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks are leaning towards Philadelphia, the NL’s best team, trailing only the Yankees for the best record in baseball.

Phillies vs Mets prediction

My best bet
Phillies -155 (-110 at DraftKings)

My analysis

The New York Mets have been surging and it’s their offense that has been carrying them.

The Mets punished Washington pitching in its 3-game sweep, outscoring the Nationals 23-11 over the set. During their run of five wins in seven games, they’ve scored six or more runs four times.

That’s a good burst for a team that’s been middle of the pack in runs scored, and ranking between 13-16 in all the major hitting categories. The real test comes Saturday, when they face Philadelphia Phillies ace Ranger Suarez.

The Venezuelan lefty is tied for first in wins with a 9-1 record, sporting a 1.70 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP – both MLB-best marks. He’s a big part of the reason Philadelphia has the second-best ERA in the bigs at 2.92 while enjoying Top-4 marks in WHIP and batting average against. The Phillies also lead the majors in strikeouts thrown.

While New York has made noise with the bats, the Phils have pitched their way to recent success – allowing six total runs in their last six wins. The Mets have already seen Suarez’ work first-hand, as he tossed five innings against them, giving up just four hits and no earned runs and striking out three in a 10-5 blowout on May 15.

Suarez is coming off his shortest outing of the year, lasting just two innings against St. Louis after he took a line drive off his pitching hand. X-rays came back negative.

I don’t know if Mets’ lefty Sean Manaea will be able to keep up, but he did just give up one run in six innings of work with six strikeouts in his lone start against the Phillies this year, taking a no-decision in a 5-4 Philadelphia win in 10 innings. Even if Manaea manages to hold off this Phils' lineup, the Mets' bullpen might not. They're 29th in bullpen ERA over the last two weeks (6.44) while Philly is first in the same span (0.87).

Philadelphia is 3-1 in this head-to-head this year and have won seven of 10 against New York.

Phillies vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)

Phillies -155

Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 total bases

Pete Alonso Over 1.5 total bases

Phillies outfielder Nick Castellanos is a no-brainer to be rolled into Saturday’s SGP. He homered last time out against the Brewers and has hit safely in seven of his past eight games, going 10-for-31 (.323) with two homers, six RBIs and six runs during that stretch.

He’s also secured two total bases in six of his last seven games and has hit Manaea hard, going 5-for-11 (.455) with a double, two home runs and three RBI.

Let’s stick with the total bases prop with New York first baseman Pete Alonso. He’s coming off a 1-for-3 outing against the Nats with a double and run scored.

Like Castellanos, his total base line is set at 1.5, and Alonso has picked up two total bases five times in his last seven games. He went just 1-for-5 against Suarez last time they met, but that hit was a double.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Phillies vs Mets odds

Phillies vs Mets live odds

Phillies vs Mets opening odds

  • Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 | New York +1.5
  • Moneyline: Philadelphia -149 | New York +130
  • Over/Under: Over 10 | Under 10

Phillies vs Mets spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Philadelphia has won four of the last five head-to-head matchups.
  • The Over has hit in five of the last six matchups.
  • Seven of the Phillies' last eight games have gone Under the total.

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Phillies vs Mets trend

The Phillies have won each of their last nine Saturday games. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mets

Phillies vs Mets game info

Location: London Stadium, London, United Kingdom
Date: Saturday, 6-8-2024
First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez
(9-1, 1.70 ERA)
Mets starting pitcher: Sean Manaea
(3-2, 3.63 ERA)

Phillies vs Mets latest injuries

Phillies vs Mets weather

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