The Seattle Mariners (56%) are favored against the Houston Astros in a battle of AL West foes likely to be eliminated from playoff contention in the very near future.
It's still all systems go for both teams, so my Astros vs. Mariners predictions are backing a Seattle side that has advantages on the mound and in the batter's box.
Let's break down my MLB picks for Tuesday, Sept. 22.
Who will win Astros vs Mariners today: Mariners moneyline
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Give me the Seattle Mariners to 59%.
Starter Logan Gilbert has pitched to a 3.13 xERA over the last month, slotting him just below names like Drew Rasmussen and Payton Tolle.
Actual retail price: 5.53 ERA.
While he is playing much better than his recent results suggest, this is not the right spot to fade him. The Houston Astros are in horrid form against right-handed pitching, ranking 25th in xSLG and 29th in xwOBA this month.
The Mariners crack the Top 6 in both categories. They’re also facing a lesser pitcher in Cristian Javier.
COVERS INTEL: Gilbert sits in the 85th percentile in xERA and will provide serious resistance to a Houston offense 27th in wOBA since Aug. 1.
Astros vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Under 7.5
I like the Under to 57%.
Javier had a tough start to the season but has quietly pitched well of late, recording a 3.65 ERA and 3.52 xERA over his past five starts.
He has limited hard contact effectively. Combined with favorable pitching weather, that should help him keep the ball in the park and avoid blowup innings.
Gilbert has locked down subpar offenses vs. RHP, especially in pitcher-friendly conditions. He’s recorded an impressive 2.76 ERA and 2.33 xERA over 10 starts vs. Bottom-10 teams in xwOBA.
Look for him to get right tonight.
Astros vs Mariners home run prediction: Cal Raleigh
Cal Raleigh is back and better than ever. Okay, maybe not ever — but he’s back!
Raleigh has hammered the fastball-sweeper combination over the last 25 games, posting a ridiculous .478 ISO and 35.7% barrel rate.
He is a legitimate power threat again and not somebody Javier will want to see. Raleigh only has seven career at-bats against Javier but hit safely in three of them, with one leaving the park.
Given Raleigh’s current form, and how frequently Javier throws fastballs, he is very live to take him yard again.
- ML/RL picks: 120-99, -2.29 units
- Over/Under picks: 113-100-6, -0.59 units
Astros vs Mariners weather
With temperatures in the low 60s and no outward winds, the conditions are favorable for pitchers.
Astros vs Mariners odds
- Moneyline: Astros 45% | Mariners 56%
- Run line: Astros +1.5 (63%) | Mariners -1.5 (38%)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (46%) | Under 7.5 (55%)
Astros vs Mariners trend
Houston has hit the Under in 15 of its last 23 games (+9.90 units, 40% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Mariners.
How to watch Astros vs Mariners and game info
| Location | T-Mobile Field, Seattle, Wash. |
| Date | Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SCHN, Mariners.TV |
| Astros starting pitcher | Cristian Javier (2-6, 5.31 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Logan Gilbert (12-10, 3.69 ERA) |
Astros vs Mariners latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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