The New York Yankees and San Diego Padres will wrap up a three-game entertaining series tonight in the Bronx.
The Yankees finally broke through last night against what many assume is the best bullpen in baseball with a 10-run seventh inning. New York needed it, too. The win snapped a three-game losing streak for them, a streak which matched the longest of the season. Can the Bronx boys win the series tonight in an ace vs ace duel?
My Padres vs. Yankees predictions break it down here as I bring you my MLB picks when the two teams meet Wednesday, May 7.
Padres vs Yankees prediction
My Padres vs Yankees best bet: First Five Under 4 (-105 at Bet365)
Dylan Cease can't be this bad, can he? That's not simply wishful thinking from me for one of my favorite pitchers in the league; it's actually backed up by the numbers, too.
The 29-year-old righty who many would consider to be in the prime of his career is suddenly having one of the worst starts to a season he's had. He'll come into this game off an uninspiring four-inning appearance against the Pittsburgh Pirates, where he allowed two earned runs. In theory, he should be walking into a world of hurt when facing one of the best offenses in the majors tonight. But it all comes with a caveat.
That caveat? An expected ERA that's over a run shorter than his actual ERA and expected wOBA that is also much different than the actual numbers he's put up. Cease may not return to his 2022 form of a 2.2 ERA anytime soon, but at least some positive regression is coming. Oddly enough, I think some can happen here, and it's all because of one pitch.
The slider. If there's any pitch that the top of this New York Yankees lineup – the group that does the heavy lifting for this offense – struggles with, then it's that pitch. Aaron Judge, Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Cody Bellinger are all betting .220 or worse against it. In addition, the pitch has produced a 37% whiff rate for Cease this season, and those same key starts have a K rate above the league average against that pitch. I expect Cease to be able to lean on this pitch in a bounce-back effort of sorts.
On the other side is Max Fried, and Max Fried has been Max Fried. I bet him earlier this week at +550 and +500 to win the American League Cy Young, and I'll be inclined to do it again if the odds creep back up beyond that. He's well-suited to build on his tremendous start to the season today.
A bad start will come for Fried because eventually it comes for all, but you'd think that will be against a team that puts the ball into the air at an inordinate rate. That's not the San Diego Padres.
They'll come in today with the fourth-highest ground ball rate in the sport. Fried is elite at inducing ground balls. He's faced one team ranking higher than the Padres this season in ground ball – the Tampa Bay Rays, who rank third — and he's gone a combined 14 innings against them, allowing zero earned runs. I don't expect a ton of things to be different today.
Padres vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
First Five Under 4
Paul Goldschmidt hit
Yankees moneyline
We're adding two additions to our best bet for this same-game parlay.
If there's one hitter in the Yankees lineup who should have some success against Cease's preferred pitch mix, it's Goldschmidt, so we're taking him to get a hit. He leads the Yankees in batting average and slugging against the slider while ranking highly against the fastball.
We're also adding Yankees to take care of business. It just comes down to Max Fried vs Dylan Cease. While I'm nearly as "out" on Cease as the numbers may indicate I should be, I'm still much higher on Fried in this matchup. I expect him to, once again, give New York a significant edge.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Yankees odds
Padres vs Yankees live odds
Padres vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +120 | New York -190
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-148) | New York -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Padres vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 36 games (+5.95 Units / 11% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Yankees.
How to watch Padres vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Wednesday, 5-7-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | SDPA, Amazon Prime Video |
| Padres starting pitcher | Dylan Cease (1-2, 5.61 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Max Fried (6-0, 1.01 ERA) |
Padres vs Yankees latest injuries
Padres vs Yankees weather
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