The red-hot Los Angeles Dodgers go for their seventh win in their last eight games as they host the San Diego Padres tonight.
With Los Angeles heavily juiced at -233 on the moneyline, my Padres vs. Dodgers predictions are targeting the Boys in Blue on the run line.
Read on for my full MLB picks for Saturday, July 4.
Who will win Padres vs Dodgers tonight: Dodgers -1.5 (-116)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have a massive starting pitching advantage. Yoshinobu Yamamoto will leverage his patented splitter against a San Diego Padres lineup that struggles against the offering, posting the fourth-lowest runs above average (-7.1).
Griffin Canning issues too many free passes (13.3% walk rate) and allows loud contact (third percentile hard-hit rate), and he should get battered by a Dodgers lineup with the second-best barrel rate (9.4%).
L.A. has won 10 of Yamamoto’s 15 starts and should do so comfortably here, so I’d play the run line up to -125.
COVERS INTEL: Griffin Canning struggles mightily against left-handed hitters (.312/.398/.578), and L.A. has nine hitters with a wRC+ over 115 against right-handed pitchers.
Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-104)
L.A. has played Under in nine of Yamamoto’s last 14 starts, so I’m riding the trend. He limits walks (5.1% walk rate), which is crucial against a Padres lineup that’s walked more than anyone else against RHP in the last 14 days.
Canning will struggle, but manager Craig Stammen can go to his well-rested bullpen early. Mason Miller hasn’t thrown since Monday, so he’ll likely make an appearance and influence the total.
The Padres have gone Under in seven of Canning’s 11 appearances despite his inconsistency, largely because the hook is quick and the bullpen behind him has been effective (3.71 SIERA).
- ML/RL bets: 25-24, -2.85 units
- Over/Under bets: 33-17, +15.23 units
Padres vs Dodgers weather
Temperatures at Chavez Ravine are expected to be in the mid-70s, with light winds around 5-10 mph.
Padres vs Dodgers odds
- Moneyline: Padres +218 | Dodgers -242
- Run line: Padres +1.5 (+105) | Dodgers -1.5 (-116)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-118) | Under 8.5 (-104)
Padres vs Dodgers trend
Los Angeles has covered the run line in five of Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s last six starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers.
How to watch Padres vs Dodgers and game info
| Location | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Saturday, July 4, 2026 |
| First pitch | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
| Padres starting pitcher | Griffin Canning (1-5, 7.09 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (8-5, 2.67 ERA) |
Padres vs Dodgers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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