The Los Angeles Angels go for the three-game sweep as they host the San Diego Padres tonight.
With San Diego sending star pitcher Dylan Cease to the mound, I'm targeting the visitors to get right in my Padres vs. Angels predictions
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions on Wednesday, June 5.
Padres vs Angels prediction
My best bet
Padres -1.5 (+120 at bet365)
My analysis
The San Diego Padres have lost three straight, including Games 1 and 2 of the current series against the Los Angeles Angels. It’s not a coincidence that the Padres faced left-handed starting pitchers and struggled offensively in all three games, scoring a combined six runs. They’ve been woeful against southpaws all year and will be glad to square off against a right-hander for a change.
Jose Soriano has been a bright spot for the Angels. The flamethrower made his MLB debut in relief in 2023 but has transitioned to the rotation, where he’s put forth a 3.86 ERA and solid underlying numbers (3.98 xERA, 3.89 FIP, 3.85 xFIP).
There are still a few holes in his game the Padres could exploit. He walks too many batters (10.2% BB%) and is tied for third-last in Location+ (96) among starters who have hurled at least 50 innings. Batters are making quality contact off his offerings, too — Soriano ranks in the eighth percentile in hard-hit% (47.2), the 23rd percentile in average exit velocity (89.9 mph), and the 25th percentile in barrel% (9.2%).
San Diego has feasted against right-handed pitching all year with a 119 wRC+ (second in MLB) and a .329 wOBA (third). We’re catching a discounted price after three straight losses to lefties, but I’m not concerned. The latest results are simply a continuation of a season-long trend of bashing righties and squandering chances against southpaws.
Mike Shildt’s squad has to feel good about sending Dylan Cease to the mound. His 3.42 ERA across his first 12 starts with the ballclub has been good, but he’s been a tad unlucky and should continue to improve that number.
His 3.22 xERA, 2.72 FIP, and 3.25 xFIP are all encouraging and he’s been his usual strikeout-artist self (90th percentile K%, 92nd percentile whiff%). Cease ranks fourth in Stuff+ (121) among qualified starters and is tied for a career-high with a 15% swinging strike rate, so clearly something is working.
The Angels have been bereft of the ability to hit right-handed pitching. They have a ghastly 55 wRC+ (30th) and .243 wOBA (30th) across the last 15 days and it’s not like that’s a result of a small sample as they’ve been a Bottom-5 team in both categories on the season.
Padres vs Angels same-game parlay (SGP)
Padres -1.5
Dylan Cease Over 6.5 strikeouts
Jo Adell Under 0.5 hits
Luis Arraez Over 1.5 hits
Cease has struck out at least seven batters in eight of his last 11 starts, so his K prop feels like a gift from the oddsmakers. The Angels rank 11th in K% (23.6%) against righties and don’t draw a ton of walks (25th in MLB with a 7.6% BB%), meaning Cease should be able to stay in the game while maximizing opportunities for punchouts.
Jo Adell has flashed more upside than in past seasons but still has massive holes in his game with a 30.7% K% and .263 OBP. He makes great contact when he does hit the ball, but it’s hard to see him doing anything other than swinging and missing because that’s his usual MO and Cease is one of the nastier K-artists around.
Luis Arraez is the antithesis of Adell and I’m pouncing on the opportunity to buy low on his hit prop after a few down games. He posted a .354 BA a year ago and is at .335 this year as a true anomaly in the sport.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Angels odds
Padres vs Angels live odds
Padres vs Angels opening odds
- Run line: San Diego -1.5 (+115) | Los Angeles +1.5 (-135)
- Moneyline: San Diego -150 | Los Angeles +125
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Padres vs Angels spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Padres have been great on the road (19-13) while the Angels have been brutal at home (8-22).
- The Padres have been a moneymaking machine against the run line in away games, covering 23 of their 32 chances.
- The Angels have terrible numbers at the plate against right-handed pitching and their record backs that up — they’re just 15-34 when facing a right-handed starter.
DraftKings Early Win Payout: Up 2 = Win!
Make your moneyline bets less of a sweat with DraftKings' EWP, where every day you can get one MLB moneyline bet paid out immediately — as soon as your team goes up by 2+ runs
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Padres vs Angels trend
The Padres have hit the run line in 15 of their last 22 away games. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Angels
Padres vs Angels game info
| Location: | Angels Stadium, Anaheim, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 6-5-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:38 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Dylan Cease (5-4, 3.42 ERA) |
| Angels starting pitcher: | Jose Soriano (2-5, 3.86 ERA) |
Padres vs Angels latest injuries
Padres vs Angels weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
