Toronto Blue Jays superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball this season, and I expect that trend to continue tonight at Target Field with Bailey Ober on the mound for the Minnesota Twins.
Read on to see why with my Blue Jays vs. Twins predictions and MLB Picks on Thursday, April 30.
Blue Jays vs Twins predictions
Blue Jays vs Twins best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+115)
With the way Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is swinging the bat, anytime he’s plus money to grab 2+ bases, it’s good value.
The Toronto Blue Jays slugger leads the majors in hits and batting average this season and has three multi-hit performances over his last four games, while averaging 2.5 bases per game in that stretch.
Two pitches that Guerrero has handled well this season are the four-seam fastball and the changeup. His average is well above .500 on both of those pitches, which are the two most frequently deployed pitches of Minnesota Twins starter Bailey Ober.
Ober is a contact pitcher who doesn’t generate a whole lot of whiff, ranking in the 57th percentile in xBA and the 55th percentile in xBA.
This is all music to Vladdy’s ears, as he typically finds grass when he makes contact, ranking in the 99th percentile in xBA.
COVERS INTEL: Guerrero owns a .403 batting average and a 1.027 OPS against the Twins’ current pitching staff.
Blue Jays vs Twins same-game parlay (SGP)
I'll continue to pound Guerrero props and take him to cross the plate at least once. The lineup is finally starting to hit behind him, and he has 11 runs scored over his last 10.
The Twins own a .143 batting average with a 36.6% strikeout rate against the splitter. Add Under 2.5 earned runs for ace Kevin Gausman, who has an electric split and has been 5-1 to the Under on this prop in 2026.
Blue Jays vs Twins SGP
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 runs
- Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 earned runs
Blue Jays vs Twins home run pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+510)
I’m betting a half unit on today’s home run pick with Ober on the mound.
He has kept the ball in the yard this season, allowing just three home runs in six starts. However, he was one of the worst in baseball at suppressing homers in 2025, allowing 30 long balls in 146 1/3 innings. Only three pitchers who threw at least 140 innings had a higher HR/9 than him last season.
Guerrero has been a great fastball and changeup hitter this season, boasting 70% hard-hit rate against the change, which is Ober's most used pitch against righties.
- Best bets: 10-19, -5.8 units
- SGPs: 4-25, -9.25 units
- HR picks: 5-28, -1.23 units
Blue Jays vs Twins odds
- Moneyline: Blue Jays -135 | Twins +115
- Run line: Blue Jays -1.5 (+130) | Twins +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Blue Jays vs Twins trend
The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.25 Units / 43% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Twins.
How to watch Blue Jays vs Twins and game info
| Location | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Thursday, April 30, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet 1, MNNT |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Kevin Gausman (2-1, 2.57 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher | Bailey Ober (2-1, 3.94 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Twins latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Twins weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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