There was a lot of flip-flopping yesterday with games getting rained out and guys not getting into the lineup, but I hit a winner for the third straight day and now have to thank the baseball heavens because of it. It's the only reason the balls are finally leaving the yard, and the MLB player props are starting to hit.
Yordan Alvarez is going to get the train going in the afternoon with possibly the best hitting matchup of the day, but the Baltimore Orioles, in the same game, are going to stack runs, and Samuel Basallo at his price stands out the most.
These are my favorite home run props for Thursday, April 30.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Yordan Alvarez |
+320 |
 Samuel Basallo |
+710 |
 Juan Soto |
+310 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +9457 |
Yordan Alvarez (+320)
The rain stopped us yesterday, but our MLB picks are getting the best hitting matchup at a better price today with Yordan Alvarez vs. Chris Bassitt. Alvarez at +320 to go deep is still +EV, per Covers projections. The fair price for the best hitter in baseball to go yard sits closer to +270.
Alvarez is a freak. He leads baseball in multiple standard and advanced metrics and hasn’t homered in four straight games — his longest drought of the year. He may also have this matchup circled, as Bassitt has struggled against him. Alvarez is 5-for-22 with five home runs and a 1.598 OPS vs. Bassitt in his career.
Winds are blowing out to right field today, which is even better for the left-handed Alvarez than yesterday's wind. Bassitt has also allowed all of his home runs this year to left-handed hitters.
- Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, Space City Home Network
Samuel Basallo (+710)
I have to get a piece of the Baltimore Orioles offense in an elite hitting matchup. Peter Lambert is pitching above his expectations this year, and a shorter outing is possible, which leaves the door open for one of the worst bullpens in baseball.
The wind is blowing out to right field, helping the left-handed hitting catcher. Samuel Basallo comes at a big price for a hitter producing extra-base damage, with two doubles and two home runs over his last three games.
This projects as the best +EV home-run play on the slate, per Covers, with a fair price around +550. There should be runs in this game.
- Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, Space City Home Network
Juan Soto (+310)
Take me to square town, but Juan Soto has his swing locked in and draws a matchup with Miles Mikolas that belongs on any HR card.
Soto’s swing speed and Blast Contact% over the last two weeks have been elite — he’s squaring everything up. This is a stat-padding spot against Mikolas, who has struggled and is likely to hand things over to a vulnerable Washington Nationals bullpen. In Mikolas’ last three starts, the Nats have allowed 29 total runs.
Soto 2+ total bases at even money is also on the card. It’s the hottest bat against one of the softest matchups available.
- Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Nationals.TV, SNY
- HR picks: 9-50, -2.9u units
Today’s HR parlay
| Yordan Alvarez |
Bet Now +9457 |
| Samuel Basallo |
|
| Juan Soto |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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