There was a lot of flip-flopping yesterday with games getting rained out and guys not getting into the lineup, but I hit a winner for the third straight day and now have to thank the baseball heavens because of it. It's the only reason the balls are finally leaving the yard, and the MLB player props are starting to hit.
Kazuma Okamoto is starting to figure it out at the plate, and he's a great option to target in the day's nightcap.
These are my favorite home run props for Thursday, April 30.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Yordan Alvarez |
+320 |
 Kazuma Okamoto |
+600 |
 Juan Soto |
+310 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +8860 |
Yordan Alvarez (+320)
The rain stopped us yesterday, but our MLB picks are getting the best hitting matchup at a better price today with Yordan Alvarez vs. Chris Bassitt. Alvarez at +320 to go deep is still +EV, per Covers projections. The fair price for the best hitter in baseball to go yard sits closer to +270.
Alvarez is a freak. He leads baseball in multiple standard and advanced metrics and hasn’t homered in four straight games — his longest drought of the year. He may also have this matchup circled, as Bassitt has struggled against him. Alvarez is 5-for-22 with five home runs and a 1.598 OPS vs. Bassitt in his career.
Winds are blowing out to right field today, which is even better for the left-handed Alvarez than yesterday's wind. Bassitt has also allowed all of his home runs this year to left-handed hitters.
- Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, Space City Home Network
Kazuma Okamoto (+600)
The Toronto Blue Jays lineup is turning a corner.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is ripping the ball, Ernie Clement is going yard, George Springer is back, and Kazuma Okamoto is putting it together.
There’s still some swing and miss with the rookie, but he’s adjusting. He owns the best Blast Contact numbers on the team and is squaring the ball up at a 54.5% clip over the last seven days.
Pair that with Top-3 bat speed and a strong HR price, and he’s the target indoors vs. Bailey Ober and a bottom-tier Minnesota Twins bullpen.
Minnesota doesn’t have a true closer right now and is using a three-man committee late. Eric Orze is part of that mix, just blew a save yesterday, and is likely unavailable. The fair price is around +500.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SN1, MNNT
Juan Soto (+310)
Take me to square town, but Juan Soto has his swing locked in and draws a matchup with Miles Mikolas that belongs on any HR card.
Soto’s swing speed and Blast Contact% over the last two weeks have been elite — he’s squaring everything up. This is a stat-padding spot against Mikolas, who has struggled and is likely to hand things over to a vulnerable Washington Nationals bullpen. In Mikolas’ last three starts, the Nats have allowed 29 total runs.
Soto 2+ total bases at even money is also on the card. It’s the hottest bat against one of the softest matchups available.
- Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Nationals.TV, SNY
- HR picks: 9-50, -2.9u units
Today’s HR parlay
| Yordan Alvarez |
Bet Now +8860 |
| Kazuma Okamoto |
|
| Juan Soto |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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