Almost half of the MLB schedule today starts before 1:00 p.m. ET, so we're starting nice and early with our MLB best bets, based on prices available at Polymarket.
Read on to see why our expert MLB picks start by targeting early offense in the first leg of the Astros/Orioles doubleheader, then look at the Reds to roll over a so-so starting pitcher and Arizona to win in a spot it appears mispriced.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: HOU/BAL YRFI (G1) |
-113 |
 Neil Parker: CIN -1.5 |
+127 |
 Joe Osborne: ARI ML |
+117 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Astros/Orioles YRFI (Game 1)
Price: 53¢ (-113) at Polymarket
The total in Game 1 of today’s doubleheader between the Houston Astros and Baltimore Orioles is 9.5, and the YRFI is trading at just -113 — I’m in. This is the best pitching matchup to target for early offense: Chris Bassitt has had issues with Yordan Alvarez, who has taken him deep five times in 22 at-bats. On the other side, Peter Lambert is likely punching above his weight early, and I’m not buying the turnaround after prior struggles. There are command concerns on both sides that point to traffic on the bases early — this sets up well for runs in the opening frame (and throughout the game).
Neil Parker's expert pick: Reds -1.5
Price: 44¢ (+127) at Polymarket
The Colorado Rockies rank 22nd in wOBA with the second-highest strikeout percentage against southpaws — so I’m expecting Cincinnati Reds lefty Andrew Abbott to string together some scoreless innings this afternoon, as he's a better pitcher than his .351 BABIP and 63.9% strand rate indicate. Colorado counters with Michael Lorenzen, a run-of-the-mill righty with a 4.20 ERA across 551 1/3 innings since transitioning to a full-time starter in 2022.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Diamondbacks ML
Price: 46¢ (+117) at Polymarket
Sign me up for the Arizona Diamondbacks as a small dog when they have a clear edge in both starting pitching and hitting. Mike Soroka is in the midst of a breakout season, after injuries stalled his career, and Arizona is 4-1 in his starts as he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of them. He's in a great spot to carve up a struggling Milwaukee Brewers lineup that ranks 28th in OPS over the past two weeks. Milwaukee SP Brandon Woodruff has been solid, but Arizona’s offense — fourth in OPS over the past two weeks — can give him trouble.
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tigers ML | +115 |
| Read analysis in our Tigers vs. Braves predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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