Nationals vs Phillies Picks and Predictions: Philadelphia Pounds Down on Visiting Nats

Noah Syndergaard makes his Philadelphia debut when Washington comes to town. With Washington in full tank mode, will Philly be able to cover the run line? Find out in our MLB betting picks and predictions for Nationals vs. Phillies.

Last Updated: Aug 4, 2022 3:38 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Kyle Schwarber Philadelphia Phillies MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia Phillies will get to see their newest teammate as former Los Angeles Angels right-hander Noah Syndergaard takes the mound against the Washington Nationals on Thursday. 

Philadelphia defeated the Atlanta Braves in an afternoon game on Wednesday, and now return home for a four-game series with NL East cellar-dwellers Washington. 

Philly is just a half-game ahead of St. Louis for the final wild-card spot and needs to pile up some victories to hold its position. Can it take care of the Nats on Thursday night? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Nationals vs Phillies on August 4. 

Nationals vs Phillies odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Phillies opened at -233 and have dropped to -250, though WynnBet has them at -227. The Nationals opened at +210 and have settled at several sportsbooks at +205. The total opened at 8.5, though it has gone up to 9.0 at most sportsbooks, with both the Over and Under at -110.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Nationals vs Phillies predictions

Picks made on 8/4/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Nationals vs Phillies game info

Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Date: Thursday, August 4, 2022
First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
TV: MASN, NBCS-PHI

Nationals vs Phillies betting preview

Starting pitchers

Paolo Espino (0-3, 3.78 ERA): The 35-year-old right-hander was being used by the Nationals out of the bullpen until June 12 when he got his first start against the Milwaukee Brewers. He picked up a loss in that game, but only gave up one run. He has had five subsequent games where he has allowed three or more runs, including his last start against the St. Louis Cardinals, where he allowed four runs on seven hits in just 4 2-3 innings. Espino has faced the Phillies twice this season and gave up six earned runs on nine hits in 8 2-3 innings. 

Noah Syndergaard (5-8, 3.83 ERA): The former Los Angeles Angels' hurler was traded to the Phillies on Tuesday in an attempt to give Philadelphia a quality fifth starter. The 29-year-old righty had a solid season on an Angels team that is spiraling towards the cellar in the American League West. Now Syndergaard should get some more offensive help and that should help his win-loss record. In his last three games with the Angels, he allowed six earned runs on 14 hits and got two losses and a no decision. 

Weather

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Key injuries

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Betting trend to know

The Nationals are 8-20 in the last 28 meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Phillies

Nationals vs Phillies picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Run line analysis

No one is sure what new acquisition Noah Syndergaard will bring in his first start against the Washington Nationals, but the righty is certainly enthused to be a member of the Phillies. 

The 29-year-old will be working after nine days rest. His last appearance on the mound was July 25 against the Kansas City Royals, where he went 5 2-3 innings, allowing one run on six hits with six strikeouts. He got the loss, however, because the Angels' bats were shut out. 

The one thing Syndergaard will get that he wasn’t receiving a whole lot of in Anaheim will be run support. The Phillies are seventh in RBI with 456, seventh in home runs with 131, sixth in runs with 476, and 10th in batting average at .248. 

Also, even though Bryce Harper is still out, Philadelphia will be getting second baseman Jean Segura back. Segura completed his Triple-A assignment and is probable for Thursday’s game. 

Another bat that will be joining the lineup is centerfielder Brandon Marsh, who was also acquired from the Angels in a separate trade. Marsh is batting .226 this season with 66 hits, 37 RBI, 34 runs, and eight home runs.

Marsh and the Phillies should be able to feast on Washington’s starting pitcher Paolo Espino. He has faced Philadelphia twice this season and neither outing went well for him. In the first meeting on June 17, he allowed three runs on three hits, including a home run in five innings. He also got a start against it on July 5, and gave up four runs on six hits, including two home runs in just 3 2-3 innings.

The Phillies are 6-1 in their last seven games and 5-1 in their last six against a right-handed starter. They are also 4-1 in their last five following a win. 

Prediction: Phillies -1.5 (-120 at WynnBet)

Over/Under analysis

The trends are screaming to take the Over, but I think the Under is going to hit. Syndergaard is going to be anxious to show Philly fans what they are getting and against a weak offense, he should thrive against the Nationals.

Washington is 26th in the majors in runs with 396, and next to last in home runs with 80. It is also 26th in RBI with 378, though 15th in hits with 860. 

Espino is the one to worry about. He has given up four or more runs in three of his last five games. The bullpen is no better — accounting for 17 runs in those games. 

Still, that only adds up to 32 runs in five games between Espino and the bullpen. That’s an average of 6.4 runs, well below the Under for Wednesday’s total of nine. 

The Under has hit five of six games for the Nationals in their last six games where the total was set at 9.0-10.5. The Under is also 4-1 in their last five road games against a team with a winning record. 

Again, the worry is with the Phillies, who have hit the Over in their last four games. The Over is also 4-1-1 in their last six home games. 

If Syndergaard can contain the Washington bats, which I think he will, I don’t see the Phillies scoring more than nine runs. I am sticking with the Under on this game. 

Prediction: Under 9 (-110 at Caesars)

Best bet

Noah Syndergaard strikes out a fair amount of batters every time he takes the mound. He has 64 strikeouts in 80 innings, good for a 1.25 average per inning. 

In his last three games, Syndergaard struck out six Kansas City Royals, three Houston Astros, and eight Miami Marlins. 

Surprisingly, the Nationals are second in the majors with the least amount of strikeouts. Still, with 760 Ks, Washington is averaging 7.2 per game. That is well over the total of 4.5 listed for this prop bet. 

With Syndergaard wanting to make a good first impression, and his history of success getting players to whiff, I think 4.5 is a little low. At +100, it’s a prop bet I feel fairly confident making. 

Noah Syndergaard Prop Pick: Over 4.5 strikeouts (+100 at DraftKings)

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