It was finally a profitable week with home runs, and I need that momentum to carry over into today.
I'm not getting cute today and hitting some big-name MLB player props that, despite their short HR prices, are still showing expected value.
Juan Soto's projections are off the charts and make him worth a home run bet at his current price. Nick Kurtz has been the best home run hitter in baseball over the last 30 days and still has some meat on the bone at his current odds to go deep.
These are my favorite home run bets for Tuesday, June 16.
Best MLB home run props today
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Juan Soto
Nick Kurtz
Home run pick: Juan Soto (+222)
It's not often bettors get +EV on a +222 home run prop, but THE BAT is projecting 0.43 home runs from Juan Soto today, which is a massive number and leads all hitters on the slate by a substantial margin.
Great American Ball Park is going to help any hitter, but Soto also gets a plus matchup against right-hander Brady Singer, who owns the seventh-worst HR/FB rate among MLB starters over the last 30 days. He's also struggling to miss bats at home, posting just a 4.9 K/9 on his own mound.
Soto has been scorching the ball lately, ranking 14th in Blast Contact% over the last 30 days. Only Nick Kurtz has hit more home runs (10) than Soto over that stretch. This is a buy to +180.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Reds.TV, SNY
Home run pick: Nick Kurtz (+232)
I'm staying with the chalk in Sacramento, but even at +232, Nick Kurtz is still showing value per the projections at Covers. Kurtz projects as the second-most likely hitter to go deep today and carries a fair price below +200.
Kurtz leads all hitters with 10 home runs over the last 30 days and owns the fourth-best slugging percentage over that stretch. He's benefited from plenty of home games, and during the Athletics' current nine-game homestand, he has gone deep six times in just 35 plate appearances.
It's the best hitting environment on the slate today, with 85-degree temperatures and double-digit winds blowing out to center field. He'll face Mitch Keller and a Pittsburgh bullpen that owns the fourth-worst ERA in baseball over the last two weeks.
Kurtz has also already taken Keller deep once in just two career at-bats against the Pittsburgh starter.
It's not a long price, but today's theme is elite bats that are still showing expected value.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, SportsNet Pittsburgh
- HR picks: 15-111, -34.43 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
