Braves vs Mets Picks and Predictions: New York Gets to Wright Early

There aren't too many games tonight more important than this one, as Atlanta and New York kick off a five-game set in the chase for the division. Who takes Game 1? Find out in our MLB betting picks and predictions for Braves vs. Mets.

Last Updated: Aug 4, 2022 3:32 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Pete Alonso New York Mets MLB
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The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets open up a pivotal five-game divisional series on Thursday night. It's impossible to oversell the importance of this series for both teams. With just 1.5 games separating the two in the NL East, this could decide who takes home the divisional crown.

New York comes into this one on a hot streak. It has won eight of its last 10 and just won back-to-back games against the Washington Nationals.

Who will grab the first game of this series? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for the Braves vs. Mets on Thursday, August 4.

Braves vs Mets odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Today's odds opened up with the Mets as slight favorites at -120. Since then, odds have mostly stayed the same, and you can get the Braves at a returning price of +105.

The total opened up at 8.0 and has stayed the same since.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Braves vs Mets predictions

Picks made on 8/4/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Braves vs Mets game info

Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
Date: Thursday, August 4, 2022
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports, SNY

Braves vs Mets betting preview

Starting pitchers

Kyle Wright (13-4, 2.93 ERA): Wright is one of the most curious pitchers in baseball for my money. He has a dominant curveball, producing a league-high -12 run value. It produced a 35% K rate and a 37% whiff rate. On the other hand, his fastball has been torched. It has produced one of the highest run values in the league at +11. He is due for some regression with an xERA that hovers just over three, and metrics like exit velocity and hard-hit rate being below league average tell you his current ERA is unsustainable. The strength of Wright's game is producing ground balls at a high clip and pairing that with an above-average K rate. Ironically his statistical numbers compare very similarly to the pitcher he's opposing tonight.

Carlos Carrasco (11-4, 3.79 ERA): Carrasco is a rare pitcher that pitches almost precisely to his expected output thus far into the season. Carrasco has a 1.31 WHIP, along with 108 strikeouts. The best way to describe Carrasco is well-rounded and solid. He doesn't do many dominating things on the mound but also makes a few mistakes. If there is something he's elite at, it's making batters chase with a chase rate ranked in the Top 3% of baseball. If there is something he struggles at, it's producing too many fly balls with a rate that's above average. Carrasco is coming off a seven-inning performance against the Miami Marlins.

Weather

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Key injuries

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Betting trend to know

The Mets are 8-1 in their last nine games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mets

Braves vs Mets picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

It's hard to find much of an edge between the two pitchers at the mound. They are similar in quality and can go very deep into games. With that in mind, this handicap turns into identifying which team can attack the other side's weaknesses more effectively. From that perspective, I like New York today.

It isn't an overwhelming edge, but if you're a pitcher who gives up many fly balls, the Braves aren't the worst team to play. All of their numbers go down against flyball pitchers. Most notably, their OPS drops by 10% as guys like Ronaldo Acuna and Michael Harris seem to struggle.

It's an inexact science, but it seems one of the keys to beating them is limiting the contribution of the front of their lineup in Acuna, and doing the same against the backend of the lineup against Harris. To make matters worse for the Braves hitters, they don't exactly light up the fastball as a collective. That's the preferred pitch for Carrasco.

The other side of this game is about keying on Kyle Wright and his expected negative regression. It's seemingly impossible to continue to have an ERA below three while having a problem with hard-hit balls and exit velocity. It's not a matter of if with Wright, but when. New York is well-suited to make that tonight.

My projections give the Mets about a 60% chance to lead after five innings. It's not a massive edge, but it's a nice one for two teams that I view nearly even. So let's back them early, as they have a nice matchup edge.

Prediction: Mets F5 moneyline (-118 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

I don't want to touch this total and won't. I believe the number is about right on, and my projections see the same. But if forced to choose a side, I'm rolling with the Under.

The pitching matchup is not very relevant here, ironically enough. Both are pretty good, and even though I see an edge for the Mets hitters, it's unlikely either gives up a large number of runs. Both do outstanding jobs managing games, getting out of runs, and providing length for their bullpens. That's why both have been able to rack up many wins.

What this comes down to as much as anything are the circumstances surrounding the game. This is likely the most crucial season series for both teams, with the divisional crown on the line. As a result, I expect conservative plays from both managers with limited base running and playing to score one run rather than taking the more significant risk of scoring multiple runs. 

Again, there's not much of an edge to be had here. My projections say this goes Under 55% of the time, but I'm not sure I'm even that high. However, I'll roll with the Under because of what these five games mean to each team's season.

Prediction: F5 Under 4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Best bet

The New York Mets have been as hot as any team in baseball this season. Personally, it's taken me quite a while to warm up to them as an elite team. They don't do much exceptionally from an offensive perspective, but that doesn't matter when you do everything well. I'm starting to come around, and I believe in them tonight to get started early.

I'm doubling down on New York getting started early as my best bet. Wright's issues are bound to catch up with him eventually, and New York should be the well-rounded lineup to make that happen.

PickMets F5 moneyline (-118 at FanDuel)

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