The Chicago White Sox open a three-game set with the New York Yankees tonight at Yankee Stadium, with N.Y. listed as a -145 favorite despite Aaron Judge being shelved with a fractured right rib.
My White Sox vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, June 16, expect Chicago to pull off the upset.
Who will win White Sox vs Yankees today: White Sox (+129)
Former New York Yankees man Josh Donaldson said it simply recently in an interview about Aaron Judge’s absence:
It’s not the same team.
I agree with him and will be playing the Chicago White Sox moneyline down to +100 tonight.
Gerrit Cole’s 6th-percentile whiff rate serves as a massive red flag because it means he still doesn’t have his best stuff.
Chicago’s offense is well-positioned to take advantage, with Miguel Vargas (.398 xwOBA) along with Randal Grichuk (.388 xwOBA) flashing elite expected production.
Conversely, Davis Martin’s 88th-percentile chase rate should play well.
COVERS INTEL: Martin’s 97th-percentile pitching run value on his offspeed stuff has been elite throughout the 2026 campaign.
White Sox vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-120)
While both hurlers boast xERAs under the 4.00 mark, their underlying contact metrics suggest some looming trouble.
Gerrit Cole's 4th-percentile ground ball rate is a concern against a lineup with sneaky power. On the other side, Davis Martin faces his own hurdles with a 9th-percentile hard-hit rate allowed, surrendering loud contact at a 46.5% clip.
Even with Judge sidelined, the Yankees still have Ben Rice and Cody Bellinger to provide pop, while the Chicago lineup features a trio of bats sporting xSLG marks over .530.
Play to -130.
- ML/RL bets: 29-25, +6.46 units
- Over/Under bets: 33-21, +14.82 units
White Sox vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: White Sox +132 | Yankees -138
- Run line: White Sox +1.5 (-163) | Yankees -1.5 (+108)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+113) | Under 7.5 (-122)
White Sox vs Yankees trend
The Chicago White Sox have hit the team total Over in 34 of their last 50 games (+16.30 Units / 28% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Yankees.
How to watch White Sox vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Tuesday, June 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | CHSN, YES |
| White Sox starting pitcher | Davis Martin (9-2, 2.41 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Gerrit Cole (1-1, 2.45 ERA) |
White Sox vs Yankees latest injuries
White Sox vs Yankees weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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