Argentina begin their defense as world champions on Tuesday when they face Algeria in their Group J opener.
Lionel Messi and La Albiceleste are still quite dangerous, and my Argentina vs. Algeria predictions explain why this shouldn’t be a difficult outing for them.
Find out more in my World Cup picks for Tuesday, June 16, with kickoff at 9:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
Please link to World Cup odds and World Cup bracket throughout the article as well.
TOP PICK
Who will win Argentina vs Algeria: Argentina -1.5 (+122)
Algeria dominated their CAF qualification group, winning eight of 10 matches and conceding just eight goals. They also opened some eyes with their 1-0 win over the Netherlands two weeks ago.
But their 2-0 defeat to Nigeria at AFCON sticks out more to me. Nigeria is one of the few teams Algeria has faced with a world-class striker, and Victor Osimhen took them apart. He only scored once, but he had another denied by a last-ditch tackle and set up his teammate for their other goal.
Nigeria registered 3.36 xG in that fixture and had 41 touches inside the penalty area. I won’t be surprised to see similar numbers for Argentina.
Argentina have won their last seven matches while conceding just one goal and scoring 21 of their own. Their midfield of Enzo Fernandez, Alexis Mac Allister, and Rodrigo de Paul will aggressively press their counterparts and quickly win possession back in dangerous areas.
Lionel Messi is still a world-class playmaker, even if he can’t run as much as he did four years ago. Lautaro Martinez will cause problems for Algeria at the back, while playmakers Nico Paz, Giuliano Simeone, and Thiago Almada will look to provide him and Messi service. Julian Alvarez will also be a force off the bench.
Algeria will be without Ramy Bensebaini in defense, which is a big loss for this opening fixture. I’ll back Messi and Martinez to lead the defending champs to a multi-goal win.
This is my top play of the match, playable to +110
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Argentina vs Algeria Over/Under Pick: Over 2.5 (+104)
I’m not buying Algeria’s defensive numbers. When you look at the competition they faced during CAF qualification, there’s no excuse for them to have kept just three clean sheets.
Lionel Scaloni knows he’s going to have to keep Messi fit, which means he might not be on the pitch the full 90 minutes. However, I think this actually leads to more Argentinian goals.
That’s because the likes of Paz and Simeone bring an energy to this team, and a hunger from players who weren’t part of the 2022 run. Their playmaking ability off the bench, combined with Alvarez being in stellar form, will be problematic for a tiring Algerian side.
I also feel that the Fennec Foxes could well have a goal in them. Riyad Mahrez is still a threat on set pieces and from range, and his ability to test an error-prone Emi Martinez could create scoring chances.
They also have a promising young attacker in Ibrahim Maza, who is a terrific dribbling playmaker and may target the aging Nicolas Otamendi when he gets on the ball.
That said, Argentina can carry this total by themselves, and I believe they will, which is why I’ll back the Over up to -105.
Argentina vs Algeria projected lineup
Argentina (4-4-2): E. Martinez; Molina, Otamendi, Li. Martinez, Medina; De Paul, Fernandez, Mac Allister, Almada; Messi, La. Martinez.
Algeria (4-2-3-1): Zidane; Belghali, Mandi, Ghergui, Ait-Nouri; Bentaleb, Boudaoui; Mahrez, Maza, Amoura; Gouiri.
Argentina vs Algeria injuries
Argentina: CM Leandro Paredes (Probable), CM Nico Gonzalez (Probable), LB Nicolas Tagliafico (Out), GK Emi Martinez (Probable).
Algeria: CB Ramy Bensebaini (Out).
Argentina vs Algeria weather
Temperatures will be in the upper 70s at kickoff, with light winds and a very low chance of rain.
Argentina vs Algeria odds
| Argentina | Algeria | |
|---|---|---|
| -245 | Moneyline | +809 |
| +376 | Draw | +376 |
| Over 2.5 (+104) | Total | Under 2.5 (-108) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Argentina vs Algeria
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Tuesday, June 16, 2026 |
| Time | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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