We're banking on Kyle Harrison coming back to life in our Brewers vs. Pirates prediction.
The Milwaukee Brewers head to PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates as 57% favorites, and we're seeing a ton of value with one of baseball's best offenses against the home team's bullpen day.
Let's dive into my MLB picks for Thursday, Sept. 17.
Who will win Brewers vs Pirates today: Brewers
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Are we catching one of the best teams in baseball as just 56% favorites against the Pittsburgh Pirates? I'll take the bait and play this to 59%.
While Kyle Harrison has come back down to Earth across his last five outings (6.95 ERA, 2.23 WHIP, 23:12 K:BB), he's still dominated this Pittsburgh team across two starts, throwing 11 innings of shutout baseball against the Bucs, earning an astronomical 53% K rate in this specific matchup. This includes an 0-for-6 showing from Bryan Reynolds.
On the other side, expect the Brewers, who own the third-highest wRC+ in baseball, to get to opener Wilber Dotel.
COVERS INTEL: Look for Harrison to rack up strikeouts today, as his 28% K rate is in the 86th percentile among qualified pitchers, and he's facing a team that gets punched out the fourth-most in baseball.
Brewers vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Over 8.5
With the Pirates likely turning to their bullpen in the third inning, expect the Brewers to roast Pittsburgh's sixth-worst bullpen. Yes, the Pirates' 4.13 ERA is one of the worst in the National League and won't contain a team that's won seven of its last eight.
If Harrison even remotely reverts to the pitcher he's been over his last five starts, the Pirates will do their part to get us over the line here.
Don't overthink this one. Hit the button up to 59%.
Brewers vs Pirates home run prediction: Brice Turang
Give me Brice Turang to leave the yard tonight against a rough Pirates bullpen. He's in the 86th percentile for launch angle sweet spot and has hit a homer in two of his last five games. While PNC Park is a pitcher-friendly ballpark, if anyone is going deep tonight, it'll be Turang.
I'd price this closer to 15%, so let's take this value and run with it.
- ML/RL picks: 8-14, -4.25 units
- Over/Under picks: 12-10, +1.95 units
Brewers vs Pirates weather
We're seeing scattered showers with a high of 73 degrees in Pittsburgh today, which could delay the start of the game.
Brewers vs Pirates odds
- Moneyline: Brewers 57% | Pirates 42%
- Run line: Brewers -1.5 (45%) | Pirates +1.5 (56%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (53%) | Under 8.5 (48%)
Brewers vs Pirates trend
The Brewers are 7-1 in their last eight vs. the National League Central. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Pirates.
How to watch Brewers vs Pirates and game info
| Location | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date | Thursday, Sept. 17, 2026 |
| First pitch | 12:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | Brewers.TV, SportsNet Pittsburgh |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Kyle Harrison (10-4, 3.99 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Wilber Dotel (1-5, 4.84 ERA) |
Brewers vs Pirates latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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